Bolton Wanderers — Preston North End: Win probabilities, 15.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 70.8% |
| 12 | 72.7% | |
| X2 | 56.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.1% / 47.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.8% / 8.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 73.1% / 26.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 47.3% / 52.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 25.6% / 74.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.8% / 88.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.7% / 95.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Bolton Wanderers hold a slight edge over Preston North End in this Championship meeting, although the moderate confidence level points to a contest with limited separation between the teams. The available assessment supports the home side avoiding defeat, rather than indicating a decisive advantage. Bolton’s position at home gives them a marginal platform, but Preston remain close enough in the overall outlook to make the result difficult to call with certainty.
The match is projected to be medium-scoring, with both teams scoring viewed as an evenly balanced possibility. That suggests a game that could develop into an open exchange without necessarily becoming high-scoring. The most plausible scorelines include 1-1, 1-0 to Bolton Wanderers, and 2-1 to the hosts, reflecting the narrow difference between the sides. Preston North End should therefore remain competitive, while Bolton will need to make their home advantage count in the key moments.
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Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.