Stoke City — Swansea City: Win probabilities, 15.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 69.3% |
| 12 | 70.8% | |
| X2 | 59.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.8% / 46.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.0% / 9.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.4% / 25.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 47.7% / 52.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 26.0% / 74.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.0% / 88.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.8% / 95.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Stoke City and Swansea City meet in the Championship on 15 August 2026 in a fixture that looks closely balanced. The available assessment points to an evenly matched contest, with neither side holding a clear overall advantage. Confidence in that view is moderate, so the game may be shaped by small details rather than a sustained difference in quality.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring, with 1:1, 1:0 and 0:0 identified as the most likely scorelines. That range suggests a match where chances may be available but where neither team is expected to dominate consistently. Both teams scoring is considered an uncertain possibility rather than a strong pattern. Overall, the assessment gives Stoke City a slight degree of protection through the possibility of a home win or draw, while Swansea City remain fully capable of making the result competitive.
What matters before kick-off
Swansea City injury update
Swansea City defender Cameron Burgess has been sidelined long-term after rupturing his Achilles in the Carabao Cup tie against Birmingham. Midfielder Gonçalo Franco also remains unavailable due to an ankle injury.
Ethan Galbraith faces former club
Northern Ireland midfielder Ethan Galbraith completed a transfer from Swansea City to Stoke City ahead of the 2026/27 season, setting up a swift reunion with his former team on opening day.
Recent official results
Stoke City opened their 2026/27 season with a 2-0 home victory against Oldham Athletic in the Carabao Cup first round. Meanwhile, Swansea City exited the competition following a 1-0 home defeat to Birmingham City.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.