Stoke City — Swansea City: Win probabilities, 15.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 68.1% |
| 12 | 71.6% | |
| X2 | 60.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.2% / 47.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.2% / 8.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 72.7% / 27.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 46.4% / 53.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 24.9% / 75.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.3% / 88.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.4% / 95.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Stoke City and Swansea City meet in the Championship in a contest that looks finely balanced. Neither side has a clearly defined advantage in the available assessment, so the match may be shaped by how well each team manages the central areas and responds to changes in momentum. The overall expectation is for a moderate level of attacking activity rather than an open, high-tempo encounter from the outset.
The scoring outlook points towards a competitive game in which chances should emerge for both Stoke City and Swansea City, although there is no strong indication that both teams will definitely find the net. A draw is a credible possibility, while a narrow home win also fits the broader picture. With the teams rated as evenly matched and confidence only moderate, the most sensible reading is a close match where small details, defensive concentration and efficiency in the final third could decide the outcome.
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Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.