Sheffield United — Birmingham City: Win probabilities, 15.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 66.8% |
| 12 | 71.8% | |
| X2 | 61.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 54.0% / 46.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.7% / 8.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.4% / 25.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 48.4% / 51.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 26.6% / 73.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.4% / 87.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.0% / 95.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Sheffield United and Birmingham City meet in the Championship in a contest that looks evenly matched. The available assessment points to a moderate level of confidence, with neither side holding a clear overall advantage. Sheffield United have the benefit of home venue, reflected in the suggested 1X market signal, but Birmingham City remain well placed to make this a competitive fixture.
The match is projected to sit in the medium-scoring range, while the possibility of both teams finding the net is finely balanced. The most plausible scorelines are 1-1, 1-0, and 2-1, which underline the narrow margins expected between the sides. Sheffield United may have a slight edge in avoiding defeat, although a draw remains a central possibility and Birmingham City should not be discounted.
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Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.