Burnley FC — West Ham United: Win probabilities, 16.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 58.8% |
| 12 | 73.7% | |
| X2 | 67.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.1% / 41.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.5% / 6.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.3% / 21.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 54.1% / 45.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.8% / 68.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.0% / 84.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.9% / 93.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Burnley FC and West Ham United meet in a Championship contest that appears finely balanced. The available assessment points to an evenly matched game, with neither side holding a clear overall advantage. That suggests the outcome may depend on how well each team manages the key phases of the match rather than on a pronounced difference in quality.
A medium-scoring encounter is expected, and both Burnley FC and West Ham United are considered likely to find the net. This could produce an open contest with opportunities at both ends, while still leaving the result uncertain deep into the match. The moderate confidence behind the assessment underlines that this is not a fixture with a strongly defined favourite. A draw or a narrow result for either side would fit the overall picture, with the visitors retaining a slight protection against defeat in the broader outlook.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.