Burnley FC — West Ham United: Win probabilities, 16.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 55.6% |
| 12 | 73.5% | |
| X2 | 70.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 60.3% / 39.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.6% / 6.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.8% / 19.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 56.9% / 43.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 34.5% / 65.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 17.9% / 82.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.1% / 91.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 16.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.05.2026 home Wolves 1:1
- 18.05.2026 away Arsenal 0:1
- 10.05.2026 home Aston Villa 2:2
- 01.05.2026 away Leeds 1:3
- 22.04.2026 home Man City 0:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.05.2026 home Leeds 3:0
- 17.05.2026 away Newcastle 1:3
- 10.05.2026 home Arsenal 0:1
- 02.05.2026 away Brentford 0:3
- 25.04.2026 home Everton 2:1
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 07.02.2026 Burnley FC 0:2 West Ham United
- 08.11.2025 West Ham United 3:2 Burnley FC
- 10.03.2024 West Ham United 2:2 Burnley FC
- 25.11.2023 Burnley FC 1:2 West Ham United
- 17.04.2022 West Ham United 1:1 Burnley FC
- 12.12.2021 Burnley FC 0:0 West Ham United
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Burnley FC and West Ham United meet in a Championship contest that appears finely balanced, but with a slight edge for the visitors. The available assessment points towards a moderate level of confidence rather than a decisive gap between the sides. That suggests Burnley FC should remain competitive, while West Ham United may have the stronger platform over the course of the match.
The game is projected to have a medium-scoring character, with both teams likely to score. This points to an open contest in which neither defence is expected to control the match completely. Burnley FC will look to make home advantage count, but West Ham United’s marginal advantage makes avoiding defeat the more credible overall reading. The draw also remains a realistic possibility, particularly if the teams match each other in attacking periods and neither can establish sustained control.
What matters before kick-off
West Ham team news for opening match
West Ham United midfielders Tomáš Souček and Keiber Lamadrid are ruled out for the Championship opener against Burnley. Souček is recovering from an ankle injury sustained at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, while Lamadrid suffered a knock in pre-season.
Burnley captain sidelined
Burnley club captain Josh Cullen is unavailable for the match against West Ham due to a serious knee injury.
Championship opener following relegation
Burnley and West Ham United kick off their 2026/27 EFL Championship campaign against each other at Turf Moor, with both sides aiming to bounce back following relegation from the Premier League last season.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.