Burnley FC — West Ham United: Win probabilities, 16.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 55.6% |
| 12 | 73.5% | |
| X2 | 70.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 60.3% / 39.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.6% / 6.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.8% / 19.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 56.9% / 43.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 34.5% / 65.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 17.9% / 82.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.1% / 91.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Burnley FC and West Ham United meet in a Championship contest that appears finely balanced, but with a slight edge for the visitors. The available assessment points towards a moderate level of confidence rather than a decisive gap between the sides. That suggests Burnley FC should remain competitive, while West Ham United may have the stronger platform over the course of the match.
The game is projected to have a medium-scoring character, with both teams likely to score. This points to an open contest in which neither defence is expected to control the match completely. Burnley FC will look to make home advantage count, but West Ham United’s marginal advantage makes avoiding defeat the more credible overall reading. The draw also remains a realistic possibility, particularly if the teams match each other in attacking periods and neither can establish sustained control.
What matters before kick-off
West Ham team news for opening match
West Ham United midfielders Tomáš Souček and Keiber Lamadrid are ruled out for the Championship opener against Burnley. Souček is recovering from an ankle injury sustained at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, while Lamadrid suffered a knock in pre-season.
Burnley captain sidelined
Burnley club captain Josh Cullen is unavailable for the match against West Ham due to a serious knee injury.
Championship opener following relegation
Burnley and West Ham United kick off their 2026/27 EFL Championship campaign against each other at Turf Moor, with both sides aiming to bounce back following relegation from the Premier League last season.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.