Watford FC — Charlton Athletic: Win probabilities, 17.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
46.6%
Home win
Watford FC
X
27.4%
Draw
W2
26.1%
Away win
Charlton Athletic
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X73.9%
Both teams to score
Yes53.8%
Totals 2.5
Under50.4%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 73.9% |
| 12 | 72.6% | |
| X2 | 53.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.8% / 46.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.0% / 8.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.4% / 24.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 49.6% / 50.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 27.7% / 72.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.1% / 86.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.3% / 94.7% |
Goal distribution model
Watford FC × Charlton Athletic
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
8.0%
0:1
6.7%
0:2
4.3%
0:3
1.6%
0:4
0.4%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
9.8%
1:1
13.1%
1:2
6.7%
1:3
2.5%
1:4
0.7%
1:5
0.2%
2
2:0
8.4%
2:1
9.3%
2:2
5.2%
2:3
1.9%
2:4
0.5%
2:5
0.1%
3
3:0
4.4%
3:1
4.8%
3:2
2.7%
3:3
1.0%
3:4
0.3%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
1.7%
4:1
1.9%
4:2
1.0%
4:3
0.4%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.5%
5:1
0.6%
5:2
0.3%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:113.1%
1:09.9%
2:19.3%
2:08.4%
0:08.0%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 17.10.2026
Watford FC
20th place · 8 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.09.2026 away Bristol City 0:1
- 12.09.2026 home Stoke 1:2
- 08.09.2026 home Preston 2:1
- 05.09.2026 away West Brom 0:1
- 01.09.2026 away Swansea 0:2
Charlton Athletic
10th place · 12 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Cardiff 1:3
- 12.09.2026 home Portsmouth 0:0
- 09.09.2026 home QPR 0:0
- 05.09.2026 away Stoke 0:4
- 02.09.2026 away West Brom 1:1
This season: Watford FC at home vs Charlton Athletic away
| Metric | Watford FC · at home | Charlton Athletic · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 2–1–1 | 1–1–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.25 | 2.25 |
| xG for per match | 1.02 | 0.72 |
| xG against per match | 1.64 | 2.04 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.75 | 3.00 |
| Corners per match | 3.50 | 2.75 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 75% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 75% |
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
Watford FC wins0
Draws1
Charlton Athletic wins1
Goals per match1.50
Both teams scored1/2
Over 2.5 goals0/2
- 06.04.2026 Watford FC 1:1 Charlton Athletic
- 09.08.2025 Charlton Athletic 1:0 Watford FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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