Millwall FC — Lincoln City: Win probabilities, 17.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
48.9%
Home win
Millwall FC
X
26.1%
Draw
W2
25.0%
Away win
Lincoln City
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X75.0%
Both teams to score
Yes54.6%
Totals 2.5
Over51.6%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 75.0% |
| 12 | 73.9% | |
| X2 | 51.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 54.6% / 45.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.8% / 7.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.6% / 23.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 51.6% / 48.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 29.4% / 70.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.3% / 85.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.0% / 94.0% |
Goal distribution model
Millwall FC × Lincoln City
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
7.2%
0:1
6.4%
0:2
3.9%
0:3
1.5%
0:4
0.4%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
9.8%
1:1
12.4%
1:2
6.4%
1:3
2.4%
1:4
0.7%
1:5
0.1%
2
2:0
8.6%
2:1
9.5%
2:2
5.3%
2:3
1.9%
2:4
0.5%
2:5
0.1%
3
3:0
4.7%
3:1
5.2%
3:2
2.9%
3:3
1.1%
3:4
0.3%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
1.9%
4:1
2.1%
4:2
1.2%
4:3
0.4%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.6%
5:1
0.7%
5:2
0.4%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:112.4%
1:09.8%
2:19.5%
2:08.6%
0:07.2%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 17.10.2026
Millwall FC
12th place · 11 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home West Ham 2:2
- 15.09.2026 away Middlesbrough 2:2
- 12.09.2026 away Blackburn 1:3
- 05.09.2026 home Bolton 4:0
- 02.09.2026 home Wrexham 0:3
Lincoln City
13th place · 11 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Swansea 1:2
- 15.09.2026 away Bristol City 1:0
- 12.09.2026 away Preston 1:0
- 05.09.2026 home Southampton 1:1
- 01.09.2026 home Blackburn 0:0
This season: Millwall FC at home vs Lincoln City away
| Metric | Millwall FC · at home | Lincoln City · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 2–1–1 | 3–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.25 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.25 | 0.50 |
| xG for per match | 2.06 | 0.71 |
| xG against per match | 1.23 | 1.49 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.75 | 2.50 |
| Corners per match | 3.75 | 3.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 25% |
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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