Middlesbrough FC — Cardiff City: Win probabilities, 17.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
66.9%
Home win
Middlesbrough FC
X
18.3%
Draw
W2
14.9%
Away win
Cardiff City
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X85.1%
Both teams to score
Yes63.3%
Totals 2.5
Over71.0%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 85.1% |
| 12 | 81.7% | |
| X2 | 33.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 63.3% / 36.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.0% / 3.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 88.6% / 11.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 71.0% / 29.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 50.0% / 50.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 30.8% / 69.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 16.6% / 83.4% |
Goal distribution model
Middlesbrough FC × Cardiff City
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
3.0%
0:1
2.4%
0:2
1.7%
0:3
0.6%
0:4
0.2%
0:5
0.0%
1
1:0
5.9%
1:1
7.8%
1:2
4.2%
1:3
1.6%
1:4
0.5%
1:5
0.1%
2
2:0
8.1%
2:1
9.3%
2:2
5.3%
2:3
2.0%
2:4
0.6%
2:5
0.1%
3
3:0
6.8%
3:1
7.8%
3:2
4.5%
3:3
1.7%
3:4
0.5%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
4.3%
4:1
4.9%
4:2
2.8%
4:3
1.1%
4:4
0.3%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
2.2%
5:1
2.5%
5:2
1.4%
5:3
0.5%
5:4
0.2%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
2:19.3%
2:08.1%
1:17.8%
3:17.8%
3:06.8%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 17.10.2026
Middlesbrough FC
3rd place · 15 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Birmingham 2:2
- 15.09.2026 home Millwall 2:2
- 12.09.2026 home Norwich 4:3
- 05.09.2026 away QPR 1:0
- 02.09.2026 away Burnley 1:1
Cardiff City
21st place · 7 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Charlton 3:1
- 12.09.2026 away Bolton 0:1
- 08.09.2026 home Stoke 1:1
- 05.09.2026 away Portsmouth 0:2
- 02.09.2026 away QPR 1:2
This season: Middlesbrough FC at home vs Cardiff City away
| Metric | Middlesbrough FC · at home | Cardiff City · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 3–1–0 | 0–1–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.75 | 0.75 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.75 | 1.75 |
| xG for per match | 2.07 | 1.43 |
| xG against per match | 1.32 | 1.73 |
| Shots on target per match | 6.50 | 6.25 |
| Corners per match | 7.25 | 7.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Middlesbrough FC wins4
Draws1
Cardiff City wins1
Goals per match3.33
Both teams scored4/6
Over 2.5 goals3/6
- 04.01.2025 Middlesbrough FC 1:1 Cardiff City
- 31.08.2024 Cardiff City 0:2 Middlesbrough FC
- 27.04.2024 Cardiff City 1:4 Middlesbrough FC
- 03.10.2023 Middlesbrough FC 2:0 Cardiff City
- 11.02.2023 Cardiff City 1:3 Middlesbrough FC
- 13.09.2022 Middlesbrough FC 2:3 Cardiff City
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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