Vitoria SC Guimaraes — Nacional da Madeira: Win probabilities, 23.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 82.1% |
| 12 | 74.6% | |
| X2 | 43.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.4% / 46.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.5% / 7.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.4% / 21.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.2% / 46.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.9% / 69.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.3% / 84.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.5% / 93.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 23.08.2026
Vitoria SC Guimaraes
17th place · 0 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 14.08.2026 away Sp Lisbon 2:3
- 08.08.2026 home Arouca 0:1
- 16.05.2026 away Nacional 0:2
- 11.05.2026 home Casa Pia 0:1
- 04.05.2026 away Sp Lisbon 1:5
Nacional da Madeira
6th place · 4 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.08.2026 home Estoril 2:0
- 10.08.2026 away Santa Clara 2:2
- 16.05.2026 home Guimaraes 2:0
- 11.05.2026 away Santa Clara 0:2
- 02.05.2026 home AVS 1:2
This season: Vitoria SC Guimaraes at home vs Nacional da Madeira away
| Metric | Vitoria SC Guimaraes · at home | Nacional da Madeira · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 0–0–1 | 0–1–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 2.22 | 1.24 |
| xG against per match | 0.49 | 1.44 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| Corners per match | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 16.05.2026 Nacional da Madeira 2:0 Vitoria SC Guimaraes
- 02.01.2026 Vitoria SC Guimaraes 2:1 Nacional da Madeira
- 03.05.2025 Nacional da Madeira 1:2 Vitoria SC Guimaraes
- 23.12.2024 Vitoria SC Guimaraes 2:2 Nacional da Madeira
- 26.04.2021 Nacional da Madeira 1:0 Vitoria SC Guimaraes
- 21.01.2021 Vitoria SC Guimaraes 3:1 Nacional da Madeira
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Vitoria SC Guimaraes have a slight edge over Nacional da Madeira in this Liga Portugal meeting, although the low confidence level points to a competitive contest rather than a clear advantage. The available assessment leans toward the home side, but the gap between the teams is not large enough to remove the possibility of a draw or an away result.
The match is projected to be medium-scoring, with both teams scoring considered an even possibility. That leaves several plausible paths: a balanced 1:1 draw, a controlled 2:0 win for Vitoria SC Guimaraes, or a narrower 2:1 home victory. Nacional da Madeira should therefore remain relevant if they can make the game open, while Vitoria SC Guimaraes will look to turn their home advantage into greater control. Overall, the hosts have the marginally stronger profile, but the outcome remains relatively open.
What matters before kick-off
Match Venue
The Liga Portugal fixture between Vitória SC Guimarães and Nacional da Madeira is held at the Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques in Guimarães.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.