Estoril Praia — Rio Ave FC: Win probabilities, 22.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 74.5% |
| 12 | 72.0% | |
| X2 | 53.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.8% / 44.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.9% / 8.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.3% / 22.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 51.5% / 48.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 29.4% / 70.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.2% / 85.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.0% / 94.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 22.08.2026
Estoril Praia
14th place · 1 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.08.2026 away Nacional 0:2
- 07.08.2026 home Famalicao 1:1
- 16.05.2026 home Benfica 1:3
- 10.05.2026 away Alverca 1:1
- 03.05.2026 away Sp Braga 1:1
Rio Ave FC
17th place · 0 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 15.08.2026 home Porto 0:2
- 09.08.2026 away Gil Vicente 0:1
- 16.05.2026 away Casa Pia 1:1
- 11.05.2026 home Sp Lisbon 1:4
- 03.05.2026 home Gil Vicente 0:0
This season: Estoril Praia at home vs Rio Ave FC away
| Metric | Estoril Praia · at home | Rio Ave FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–0 | 0–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.22 | 0.30 |
| xG against per match | 1.47 | 1.53 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| Corners per match | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 22.03.2026 Estoril Praia 1:2 Rio Ave FC
- 01.11.2025 Rio Ave FC 0:4 Estoril Praia
- 22.02.2025 Estoril Praia 2:1 Rio Ave FC
- 21.09.2024 Rio Ave FC 2:2 Estoril Praia
- 31.01.2024 Rio Ave FC 1:1 Estoril Praia
- 20.08.2023 Estoril Praia 2:0 Rio Ave FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Estoril Praia host Rio Ave FC in a Liga Portugal fixture that looks balanced but gives the home side a slight edge. The assessment points towards a medium-scoring match, with Estoril Praia expected to have the stronger overall position without fully separating themselves from Rio Ave FC. Home advantage is the main factor behind the preference for Estoril Praia, while the narrow margin means a draw remains a realistic outcome.
The most plausible scorelines are 1-1, 2-1 to Estoril Praia, and 1-0 to Estoril Praia. That range reflects a contest where chances should be available, but neither side is expected to dominate consistently. The prospect of both teams scoring is finely balanced, so the match could develop either into a narrow home victory or an even result. The 1X signal supports a cautious view: Estoril Praia have the better outlook, but Rio Ave FC remain capable of taking a point.
What matters before kick-off
Xeka suspended for Estoril
Estoril Praia midfielder Xeka is unavailable for this match after receiving a red card in their previous fixture against Nacional.
Both teams seeking first league win
Both Estoril Praia and Rio Ave enter matchday three of the Liga Portugal season winless, with Estoril collecting one point from two matches and Rio Ave losing both of their opening fixtures.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.