Gil Vicente Barcelos — Casa Pia Lisbon: Win probabilities, 24.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 83.8% |
| 12 | 72.9% | |
| X2 | 43.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 44.4% / 55.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 89.7% / 10.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 70.4% / 29.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 43.0% / 57.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 22.1% / 77.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 9.6% / 90.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.6% / 96.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 24.08.2026
Gil Vicente Barcelos
8th place · 4 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.08.2026 away Sp Braga 0:0
- 09.08.2026 home Rio Ave 1:0
- 16.05.2026 away Sp Lisbon 0:3
- 11.05.2026 home Arouca 1:3
- 03.05.2026 away Rio Ave 0:0
Casa Pia Lisbon
18th place · 0 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 17.08.2026 home Benfica 0:7
- 08.08.2026 away Maritimo 0:1
- 16.05.2026 home Rio Ave 1:1
- 11.05.2026 away Guimaraes 1:0
- 03.05.2026 home Tondela 0:1
This season: Gil Vicente Barcelos at home vs Casa Pia Lisbon away
| Metric | Gil Vicente Barcelos · at home | Casa Pia Lisbon · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–0 | 0–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.53 | 0.65 |
| xG against per match | 0.30 | 1.28 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| Corners per match | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 27.04.2026 Gil Vicente Barcelos 2:1 Casa Pia Lisbon
- 13.12.2025 Casa Pia Lisbon 1:1 Gil Vicente Barcelos
- 22.02.2025 Casa Pia Lisbon 1:0 Gil Vicente Barcelos
- 22.09.2024 Gil Vicente Barcelos 1:1 Casa Pia Lisbon
- 03.03.2024 Casa Pia Lisbon 0:0 Gil Vicente Barcelos
- 02.10.2023 Gil Vicente Barcelos 2:0 Casa Pia Lisbon
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Gil Vicente Barcelos meet Casa Pia Lisbon in Liga Portugal with a slight edge toward the home side, although the low confidence level points to a closely balanced contest rather than a decisive mismatch. Gil Vicente Barcelos may have enough of an advantage to control important phases of the match, but Casa Pia Lisbon remain well placed to challenge that assessment if they can keep the game compact and limit clear opportunities.
The outlook suggests a medium-scoring match, with neither side clearly favoured to find the net. Both teams scoring is effectively a coin flip, so the match could develop either into a narrow home win or a more even contest. The most plausible scorelines indicate limited separation between the teams, with a one-goal margin or a draw both consistent with the available signals.
What matters before kick-off
Gil Vicente matchday 2 fixture against Braga was postponed
Gil Vicente have played only one Liga Portugal match so far this season, winning 1-0 against Rio Ave. Their matchday 2 game against Braga was postponed due to a gastrointestinal infection outbreak in Braga's squad.
Casa Pia suffered a heavy defeat against Benfica last time out
Casa Pia have lost both of their opening two Liga Portugal fixtures of the season, including a heavy 7-0 home loss to Benfica on matchday 2.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.