Maritimo Madeira — Academico de Viseu FC: Win probabilities, 22.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 76.3% |
| 12 | 71.7% | |
| X2 | 52.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 48.3% / 51.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.2% / 9.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 70.6% / 29.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 43.6% / 56.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 22.6% / 77.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 9.9% / 90.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.7% / 96.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Maritimo Madeira have a slight edge over Academico de Viseu FC in this Liga Portugal meeting, with the overall assessment pointing towards a competitive match rather than a clear mismatch. The hosts appear better placed to control the result, but the margin is limited and a draw remains a credible outcome. That makes the home side the more attractive option in a cautious match outlook, without suggesting a decisive advantage.
The scoring profile points to a medium-scoring contest. Both teams scoring is difficult to separate, so the game could develop through a measured opening before either side finds enough space to create a meaningful advantage. The most plausible scenarios are close scorelines, including a narrow home win or a level finish. Academico de Viseu FC should remain involved throughout, while Maritimo Madeira will look to use home advantage to edge the key moments.
What matters before kick-off
Team results at the start of the season
Maritimo opened their Liga Portugal campaign with two straight victories against Casa Pia (1-0) and Famalicao (2-1). Meanwhile, Academico de Viseu recorded a 2-2 draw against Benfica and a 0-1 defeat to Santa Clara in their opening two matches.
Maritimo's home record against Academico de Viseu
Maritimo have never lost a home match against Academico de Viseu in all competitions, remaining undefeated across seven home encounters with three wins and four draws.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.