FC Porto — FC Arouca: Win probabilities, 23.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 92.9% |
| 12 | 83.9% | |
| X2 | 23.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 45.3% / 54.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.1% / 4.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.2% / 16.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 61.5% / 38.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 39.2% / 60.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.5% / 78.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.2% / 89.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 23.08.2026
FC Porto
4th place · 6 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 15.08.2026 away Rio Ave 2:0
- 09.08.2026 home Alverca 2:0
- 16.05.2026 home Santa Clara 1:0
- 10.05.2026 away AVS 1:3
- 02.05.2026 home Alverca 1:0
FC Arouca
3rd place · 6 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.08.2026 home Moreirense 4:0
- 08.08.2026 away Guimaraes 1:0
- 16.05.2026 home Tondela 3:1
- 11.05.2026 away Gil Vicente 3:1
- 02.05.2026 home Santa Clara 2:2
This season: FC Porto at home vs FC Arouca away
| Metric | FC Porto · at home | FC Arouca · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–0 | 1–0–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| xG for per match | 2.59 | 0.49 |
| xG against per match | 1.66 | 2.22 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| Corners per match | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 27.02.2026 FC Porto 3:1 FC Arouca
- 29.09.2025 FC Arouca 0:4 FC Porto
- 01.03.2025 FC Arouca 0:2 FC Porto
- 29.09.2024 FC Porto 4:0 FC Arouca
- 12.02.2024 FC Arouca 3:2 FC Porto
- 03.09.2023 FC Porto 1:1 FC Arouca
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
FC Porto enter this Liga Portugal fixture as the clearly stronger side against FC Arouca. The available assessment gives the hosts a high level of confidence, with the main result signal favouring a home win. That points to FC Porto controlling more of the match and creating the stronger platform across the 90 minutes, although the prediction does not remove the possibility of a closely managed contest.
The scoring outlook is high, while the expectation of both teams finding the net remains balanced rather than clearly tilted either way. The most prominent scorelines are 2:0, 3:0 and 1:0, which suggests that FC Porto’s superiority is more likely to be reflected through control and defensive stability than through an open exchange of chances. FC Arouca will need to limit the hosts’ attacking pressure and remain disciplined, but the pre-match picture gives FC Porto a distinct edge.
What matters before kick-off
Battle for sole leadership
Heading into matchday 3 of Liga Portugal, both FC Porto and FC Arouca started the campaign with two consecutive victories. The winner of this match will claim sole possession of first place in the league table.
FC Porto squad availability
FC Porto forward Samu and Oskar Pietuszewski are ruled out for the match against FC Arouca. Meanwhile, Alan Varela returned to partial team training, and Martim Fernandes has been undergoing treatment.
FC Arouca's impressive start
In their previous match, FC Arouca secured a 4-0 victory over Moreirense, recording the first thrashing of the 2026/27 Liga Portugal season.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.