Sporting CP — FC Alverca SAD: Win probabilities, 22.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 94.5% |
| 12 | 86.8% | |
| X2 | 18.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 44.0% / 56.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.2% / 3.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.6% / 14.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 65.8% / 34.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 43.9% / 56.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 25.3% / 74.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.8% / 87.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 22.08.2026
Sporting CP
6th place · 4 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 14.08.2026 home Guimaraes 3:2
- 08.08.2026 away Estrela 2:2
- 16.05.2026 home Gil Vicente 3:0
- 11.05.2026 away Rio Ave 4:1
- 04.05.2026 home Guimaraes 5:1
FC Alverca SAD
13th place · 1 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 15.08.2026 home Estrela 2:2
- 09.08.2026 away Porto 0:2
- 16.05.2026 away Famalicao 0:1
- 10.05.2026 home Estoril 1:1
- 02.05.2026 away Porto 0:1
This season: Sporting CP at home vs FC Alverca SAD away
| Metric | Sporting CP · at home | FC Alverca SAD · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–0 | 0–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.12 | 1.66 |
| xG against per match | 1.13 | 2.59 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| Corners per match | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
- 22.03.2026 FC Alverca SAD 1:4 Sporting CP
- 31.10.2025 Sporting CP 2:0 FC Alverca SAD
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Sporting CP enter this Liga Portugal fixture as the clearly stronger side against FC Alverca SAD. The available assessment gives the hosts a high level of confidence, suggesting that Sporting CP should control much of the match through their overall superiority. FC Alverca SAD face a demanding task and may need to remain compact, limit space, and make the most of their opportunities when they arise.
The scoring outlook points towards an open, high-scoring contest rather than a tightly limited game. Even so, whether both teams find the net is difficult to call, with that possibility assessed as evenly balanced. This leaves Sporting CP as the stronger selection while allowing for different match patterns, including a controlled home performance or a more expansive game if FC Alverca SAD are forced to take greater risks. The central expectation is a home advantage built on Sporting CP’s clear edge, without treating the exact margin as predictable.
What matters before kick-off
Sporting victorious in previous league outing
Sporting CP enter the match on the back of a 3-2 home victory against Vitória de Guimarães in Liga Portugal.
FC Alverca SAD coming off a draw
FC Alverca SAD played out a 2-2 draw against Estrela Amadora in their prior Liga Portugal encounter.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.