Vitoria SC Guimaraes — Moreirense FC: Win probabilities, 20.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 90.1% |
| 12 | 78.3% | |
| X2 | 31.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 46.8% / 53.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.7% / 7.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 79.3% / 20.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 54.3% / 45.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 32.0% / 68.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.0% / 84.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.0% / 93.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 1.53 → now 1.42 |
| X | was 3.75 → now 4.10 |
| W2 | was 7.00 → now 8.50 |
Match preview
Vitoria SC Guimaraes enter this Liga Portugal fixture as the clearly stronger side, although the moderate confidence suggests that the assessment should be treated with some caution. Moreirense FC face a difficult task away from home, with the overall balance of the match favouring the hosts. The available outlook points toward a controlled contest rather than an especially open encounter.
The scoring expectation is medium, which supports a match decided by limited but meaningful attacking moments. Vitoria SC Guimaraes appear more likely to impose themselves and create the stronger platform, but Moreirense FC remain capable of contributing to the game. The possibility of both teams scoring is finely balanced, so the match could develop either into a narrow home victory or a tighter contest in which Moreirense FC stay competitive. The main analytical signal favours Vitoria SC Guimaraes, with a measured home advantage rather than an unconditional prediction.
What matters before kick-off
Liga Portugal Round 7 fixture
Vitória SC host Moreirense FC at the Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques on 20 September 2026 in Round 7 of the Liga Portugal.
Moreirense's recent match result
In their previous Liga Portugal fixture, Moreirense FC secured a 3–1 home victory over Marítimo.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.