Vitoria SC Guimaraes — Casa Pia Lisbon: Win probabilities, 06.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 88.8% |
| 12 | 78.4% | |
| X2 | 32.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 43.9% / 56.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.4% / 7.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.6% / 24.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 50.2% / 49.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 28.2% / 71.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.4% / 86.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.5% / 94.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Vitoria SC Guimaraes appear to hold the clearer position in this Liga Portugal meeting with Casa Pia Lisbon. The available assessment gives the hosts a moderate confidence advantage, suggesting that they are the stronger side without making the match one-sided on paper. Their main task will be to turn that superiority into a controlled performance and create enough chances to establish an early lead.
The expected scoring profile is medium-scoring, so the match may develop through a small number of important moments rather than an open exchange from the start. There is no clear indication that both teams will score, making that aspect of the game difficult to separate. Casa Pia Lisbon should still have a route into the contest if they remain organised and make the most of their opportunities, while Vitoria SC Guimaraes will be expected to take the initiative. Overall, the balance points towards the hosts, with a disciplined and measured home performance the most consistent reading of the available information.
What matters before kick-off
Vitória SC recent league form
Vitória SC entered matchday 5 of Liga Portugal with three points from four games, coming off a 1-0 defeat away to rivals SC Braga.
Casa Pia AC early season struggles
Casa Pia AC went into the fixture having lost all four of their opening league matches without scoring a goal, including a 1-0 home defeat to Moreirense in round 4.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.