Vitoria SC Guimaraes — Casa Pia Lisbon: Win probabilities, 06.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 88.8% |
| 12 | 78.4% | |
| X2 | 32.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 43.9% / 56.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.4% / 7.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.6% / 24.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 50.2% / 49.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 28.2% / 71.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.4% / 86.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.5% / 94.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 06.09.2026
Vitoria SC Guimaraes
13th place · 3 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 31.08.2026 away Sp Braga 0:1
- 23.08.2026 home Nacional 1:0
- 14.08.2026 away Sp Lisbon 2:3
- 08.08.2026 home Arouca 0:1
- 16.05.2026 away Nacional 0:2
Casa Pia Lisbon
18th place · 0 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 home Moreirense 0:1
- 24.08.2026 away Gil Vicente 0:2
- 17.08.2026 home Benfica 0:7
- 08.08.2026 away Maritimo 0:1
- 16.05.2026 home Rio Ave 1:1
This season: Vitoria SC Guimaraes at home vs Casa Pia Lisbon away
| Metric | Vitoria SC Guimaraes · at home | Casa Pia Lisbon · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–1 | 0–0–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.50 | 0.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| xG for per match | 2.68 | 0.71 |
| xG against per match | 0.46 | 1.51 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| Corners per match | 4.50 | 5.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 11.05.2026 Vitoria SC Guimaraes 0:1 Casa Pia Lisbon
- 28.12.2025 Casa Pia Lisbon 0:0 Vitoria SC Guimaraes
- 01.03.2025 Vitoria SC Guimaraes 1:0 Casa Pia Lisbon
- 28.09.2024 Casa Pia Lisbon 1:1 Vitoria SC Guimaraes
- 24.02.2024 Vitoria SC Guimaraes 0:2 Casa Pia Lisbon
- 23.09.2023 Casa Pia Lisbon 0:0 Vitoria SC Guimaraes
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Vitoria SC Guimaraes appear to hold the clearer position in this Liga Portugal meeting with Casa Pia Lisbon. The available assessment gives the hosts a moderate confidence advantage, suggesting that they are the stronger side without making the match one-sided on paper. Their main task will be to turn that superiority into a controlled performance and create enough chances to establish an early lead.
The expected scoring profile is medium-scoring, so the match may develop through a small number of important moments rather than an open exchange from the start. There is no clear indication that both teams will score, making that aspect of the game difficult to separate. Casa Pia Lisbon should still have a route into the contest if they remain organised and make the most of their opportunities, while Vitoria SC Guimaraes will be expected to take the initiative. Overall, the balance points towards the hosts, with a disciplined and measured home performance the most consistent reading of the available information.
What matters before kick-off
Vitória SC recent league form
Vitória SC entered matchday 5 of Liga Portugal with three points from four games, coming off a 1-0 defeat away to rivals SC Braga.
Casa Pia AC early season struggles
Casa Pia AC went into the fixture having lost all four of their opening league matches without scoring a goal, including a 1-0 home defeat to Moreirense in round 4.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.