Maritimo Madeira — SL Benfica: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 17.0% |
| 12 | 87.8% | |
| X2 | 95.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 41.1% / 58.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.2% / 3.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.2% / 14.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 65.3% / 34.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 43.3% / 56.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.9% / 75.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.5% / 87.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Maritimo Madeira face a difficult Liga Portugal test against SL Benfica, with the visitors carrying a clear qualitative advantage. The available assessment points strongly towards an away victory, while the likely scorelines all place Maritimo Madeira behind at the final whistle. The most frequently indicated outcomes are 0:2 and 0:3, with 0:1 also considered plausible.
The match is expected to have a high-scoring profile, although the possibility of both teams finding the net remains finely balanced. That suggests SL Benfica may create enough attacking pressure to control the contest, while Maritimo Madeira’s prospects depend on whether they can turn limited opportunities into goals. Overall, the balance of the preview is firmly with SL Benfica, but the exact margin remains less certain than the direction of the result.
What matters before kick-off
Pitch concerns at Estádio do Marítimo
Benfica have raised concerns over the playing surface at Estádio do Marítimo ahead of their trip to Madeira. Marítimo stopped training regularly at the stadium over a month ago to allow the turf time to recover.
Recent results prior to the clash
Marítimo enter the match following a 2-1 defeat away to Arouca in their previous league fixture. Benfica head into the game on the back of a 2-1 home victory against Estoril.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.