Maritimo Madeira — SL Benfica: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 17.0% |
| 12 | 87.8% | |
| X2 | 95.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 41.1% / 58.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.2% / 3.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.2% / 14.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 65.3% / 34.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 43.3% / 56.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.9% / 75.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.5% / 87.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.09.2026
Maritimo Madeira
7th place · 7 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 29.08.2026 away Arouca 1:2
- 22.08.2026 home Academico Viseu 2:2
- 16.08.2026 away Famalicao 2:1
- 08.08.2026 home Casa Pia 1:0
- 27.05.2023 away Estoril 1:3
SL Benfica
6th place · 7 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 31.08.2026 home Estoril 2:1
- 17.08.2026 away Casa Pia 7:0
- 09.08.2026 home Academico Viseu 2:2
- 16.05.2026 away Estoril 3:1
- 11.05.2026 home Sp Braga 2:2
This season: Maritimo Madeira at home vs SL Benfica away
| Metric | Maritimo Madeira · at home | SL Benfica · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 1–1–0 | 1–0–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.50 | 7.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.28 | 3.04 |
| xG against per match | 1.25 | 0.12 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| Corners per match | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 12.03.2023 Maritimo Madeira 0:3 SL Benfica
- 18.09.2022 SL Benfica 5:0 Maritimo Madeira
- 30.04.2022 Maritimo Madeira 0:1 SL Benfica
- 19.12.2021 SL Benfica 7:1 Maritimo Madeira
- 05.04.2021 SL Benfica 1:0 Maritimo Madeira
- 30.11.2020 Maritimo Madeira 1:2 SL Benfica
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Maritimo Madeira face a difficult Liga Portugal test against SL Benfica, with the visitors carrying a clear qualitative advantage. The available assessment points strongly towards an away victory, while the likely scorelines all place Maritimo Madeira behind at the final whistle. The most frequently indicated outcomes are 0:2 and 0:3, with 0:1 also considered plausible.
The match is expected to have a high-scoring profile, although the possibility of both teams finding the net remains finely balanced. That suggests SL Benfica may create enough attacking pressure to control the contest, while Maritimo Madeira’s prospects depend on whether they can turn limited opportunities into goals. Overall, the balance of the preview is firmly with SL Benfica, but the exact margin remains less certain than the direction of the result.
What matters before kick-off
Pitch concerns at Estádio do Marítimo
Benfica have raised concerns over the playing surface at Estádio do Marítimo ahead of their trip to Madeira. Marítimo stopped training regularly at the stadium over a month ago to allow the turf time to recover.
Recent results prior to the clash
Marítimo enter the match following a 2-1 defeat away to Arouca in their previous league fixture. Benfica head into the game on the back of a 2-1 home victory against Estoril.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.