FC Porto — Moreirense FC: Win probabilities, 04.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 97.3% |
| 12 | 90.1% | |
| X2 | 12.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 30.8% / 69.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.0% / 4.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.0% / 16.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 63.4% / 36.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 41.3% / 58.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.2% / 76.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.3% / 88.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 04.09.2026
FC Porto
1st place · 12 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 29.08.2026 away Academico Viseu 3:0
- 23.08.2026 home Arouca 2:0
- 15.08.2026 away Rio Ave 2:0
- 09.08.2026 home Alverca 2:0
- 16.05.2026 home Santa Clara 1:0
Moreirense FC
11th place · 4 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 away Casa Pia 1:0
- 16.08.2026 away Arouca 0:4
- 09.08.2026 home Sp Braga 2:2
- 16.05.2026 home AVS 0:0
- 11.05.2026 away Tondela 0:2
This season: FC Porto at home vs Moreirense FC away
| Metric | FC Porto · at home | Moreirense FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 2–0–0 | 1–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 0.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 2.79 | 0.39 |
| xG against per match | 1.10 | 1.46 |
| Shots on target per match | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| Corners per match | 9.50 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 15.03.2026 FC Porto 3:0 Moreirense FC
- 27.10.2025 Moreirense FC 1:2 FC Porto
- 02.05.2025 FC Porto 3:1 Moreirense FC
- 21.12.2024 Moreirense FC 0:3 FC Porto
- 20.01.2024 FC Porto 5:0 Moreirense FC
- 14.08.2023 Moreirense FC 1:2 FC Porto
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
FC Porto approach this Liga Portugal fixture as the clearly stronger side, with the available assessment giving them a high-confidence advantage over Moreirense FC. The main signal points towards a home win, while the scoring outlook suggests a match with several opportunities for the hosts to establish control.
Moreirense FC face a difficult task against a side expected to dominate the outcome. At the same time, the assessment indicates that a clean sheet for FC Porto is likely, which makes controlled victories such as 2-0 or 3-0 plausible scorelines. A narrower 1-0 result is also within the projected range, but the overall reading remains firmly in favour of FC Porto.
What matters before kick-off
Liga Portugal matchday 5 fixture
FC Porto host Moreirense on September 4, 2026, at the Estádio do Dragão for matchday 5 of Liga Portugal.
Moreirense's previous league result
Ahead of their match against Porto, Moreirense secured a 1-0 away victory over Casa Pia in the league.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.