Estrela Amadora — FC Famalicao: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 62.0% |
| 12 | 70.7% | |
| X2 | 67.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 51.7% / 48.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.6% / 9.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 72.2% / 27.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 45.3% / 54.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 24.0% / 76.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 10.7% / 89.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.1% / 95.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Estrela Amadora and FC Famalicao meet in Liga Portugal in a contest that looks evenly matched overall. The available assessment points to a medium-scoring game, with neither side holding a decisive advantage. FC Famalicao may have a slight edge in the result protection market, but the moderate confidence level underlines the balance between the teams rather than suggesting a clear favourite.
The scoring outlook is also finely balanced. Both teams scoring is described as a coin flip, so the match could develop into an open exchange or remain more cautious than expected. The likeliest scorelines include 1:1, 0:1 and 0:0, reflecting uncertainty over both the winner and the number of goals. Estrela Amadora will look to make home advantage count, while FC Famalicao appear capable of keeping the contest competitive and avoiding defeat.
What matters before kick-off
Team news and fitness updates
Estrela Amadora's Kevin Jansson has been recovering from an injury and remained a doubt ahead of the match, while FC Famalicão are without the injured Tom van de Looi.
Form and matchday 5 context
Estrela Amadora enter the match unbeaten in the league following a 3-2 victory over Nacional, whereas FC Famalicão are still searching for their first win of the Liga Portugal season.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.