Estrela Amadora — FC Famalicao: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 62.0% |
| 12 | 70.7% | |
| X2 | 67.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 51.7% / 48.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.6% / 9.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 72.2% / 27.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 45.3% / 54.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 24.0% / 76.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 10.7% / 89.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.1% / 95.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.09.2026
Estrela Amadora
8th place · 5 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 away Nacional 3:2
- 15.08.2026 away Alverca 2:2
- 08.08.2026 home Sp Lisbon 2:2
- 16.05.2026 away Sp Braga 2:2
- 11.05.2026 home Famalicao 0:0
FC Famalicao
14th place · 2 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 home Gil Vicente 0:0
- 23.08.2026 away Santa Clara 0:1
- 16.08.2026 home Maritimo 1:2
- 07.08.2026 away Estoril 1:1
- 16.05.2026 home Alverca 1:0
This season: Estrela Amadora at home vs FC Famalicao away
| Metric | Estrela Amadora · at home | FC Famalicao · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–0 | 0–1–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 0.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.01 | 1.26 |
| xG against per match | 2.62 | 1.29 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| Corners per match | 5.00 | 7.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 11.05.2026 Estrela Amadora 0:0 FC Famalicao
- 27.12.2025 FC Famalicao 2:3 Estrela Amadora
- 25.01.2025 FC Famalicao 0:0 Estrela Amadora
- 19.08.2024 Estrela Amadora 0:3 FC Famalicao
- 16.03.2024 FC Famalicao 0:0 Estrela Amadora
- 29.10.2023 Estrela Amadora 1:0 FC Famalicao
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Estrela Amadora and FC Famalicao meet in Liga Portugal in a contest that looks evenly matched overall. The available assessment points to a medium-scoring game, with neither side holding a decisive advantage. FC Famalicao may have a slight edge in the result protection market, but the moderate confidence level underlines the balance between the teams rather than suggesting a clear favourite.
The scoring outlook is also finely balanced. Both teams scoring is described as a coin flip, so the match could develop into an open exchange or remain more cautious than expected. The likeliest scorelines include 1:1, 0:1 and 0:0, reflecting uncertainty over both the winner and the number of goals. Estrela Amadora will look to make home advantage count, while FC Famalicao appear capable of keeping the contest competitive and avoiding defeat.
What matters before kick-off
Team news and fitness updates
Estrela Amadora's Kevin Jansson has been recovering from an injury and remained a doubt ahead of the match, while FC Famalicão are without the injured Tom van de Looi.
Form and matchday 5 context
Estrela Amadora enter the match unbeaten in the league following a 3-2 victory over Nacional, whereas FC Famalicão are still searching for their first win of the Liga Portugal season.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.