Sporting CP — Nacional da Madeira: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 94.7% |
| 12 | 87.6% | |
| X2 | 17.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 44.9% / 55.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.6% / 3.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.8% / 13.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 68.0% / 32.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 46.4% / 53.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 27.5% / 72.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.3% / 85.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.09.2026
Sporting CP
2nd place · 10 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 28.08.2026 away Rio Ave 4:0
- 22.08.2026 home Alverca 3:1
- 14.08.2026 home Guimaraes 3:2
- 08.08.2026 away Estrela 2:2
- 16.05.2026 home Gil Vicente 3:0
Nacional da Madeira
10th place · 4 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 home Estrela 2:3
- 23.08.2026 away Guimaraes 0:1
- 16.08.2026 home Estoril 2:0
- 10.08.2026 away Santa Clara 2:2
- 16.05.2026 home Guimaraes 2:0
This season: Sporting CP at home vs Nacional da Madeira away
| Metric | Sporting CP · at home | Nacional da Madeira · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 2–0–0 | 0–1–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| xG for per match | 1.62 | 0.83 |
| xG against per match | 0.77 | 2.29 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| Corners per match | 4.00 | 3.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 01.02.2026 Sporting CP 2:1 Nacional da Madeira
- 23.08.2025 Nacional da Madeira 1:4 Sporting CP
- 25.01.2025 Sporting CP 2:0 Nacional da Madeira
- 17.08.2024 Nacional da Madeira 1:6 Sporting CP
- 01.05.2021 Sporting CP 2:0 Nacional da Madeira
- 08.01.2021 Nacional da Madeira 0:2 Sporting CP
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Sporting CP face Nacional da Madeira in Liga Portugal on 5 September 2026, with the available assessment giving the hosts a clear advantage. The high confidence in the home outcome points to a significant difference between the teams, while the scoring outlook suggests a match with several chances and goals. Sporting CP should be expected to take the initiative, control territory and create the more dangerous opportunities.
The most likely scorelines indicate a comfortable home victory, with 3:0, 2:0 and 4:0 among the leading scenarios. That points to Sporting CP having the stronger attacking platform and Nacional da Madeira facing a demanding defensive task. However, the assessment of both teams scoring remains balanced, so it is not clear whether Nacional da Madeira will find the net. Overall, the analysis supports a controlled Sporting CP performance in a potentially high-scoring contest, while Nacional da Madeira will need to remain compact and make the most of limited attacking moments.
What matters before kick-off
João Gião's managerial transition
Ahead of the 2026–27 season, João Gião left his role as head coach of Sporting CP's B team to take charge of Nacional.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.