Gil Vicente Barcelos — Academico de Viseu FC: Win probabilities, 06.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 72.8% |
| 12 | 67.5% | |
| X2 | 59.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 47.8% / 52.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 87.6% / 12.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 68.6% / 31.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 39.8% / 60.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 19.6% / 80.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 8.1% / 91.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 2.9% / 97.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Gil Vicente Barcelos have a slight edge over Academico de Viseu FC, with the overall outlook pointing towards a cautious Liga Portugal contest. The available assessment gives the hosts a high-confidence advantage, but not one that removes the possibility of a draw. The 1X signal supports a result that avoids an away victory.
The match is expected to be low-scoring, so defensive organisation and the ability to make limited chances count may be decisive. Both teams scoring is considered evenly balanced, leaving several plausible paths through the game. A 1:1 draw and a goalless outcome are among the likely scorelines, while a narrow 1:0 win for Gil Vicente Barcelos also fits the assessment.
What matters before kick-off
Team form ahead of the round 5 fixture
Gil Vicente entered matchday 5 unbeaten with two wins and a draw from three league games. Meanwhile, Académico de Viseu was still seeking its first victory of the season, having logged two draws and two losses in four matches.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.