Estoril Praia — FC Arouca: Win probabilities, 07.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 63.5% |
| 12 | 72.5% | |
| X2 | 63.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.8% / 40.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.1% / 6.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 79.8% / 20.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 55.3% / 44.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 32.9% / 67.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.8% / 83.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.4% / 92.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Estoril Praia and FC Arouca look evenly matched ahead of their Liga Portugal meeting. The available assessment gives neither side a decisive advantage, pointing instead to a contest where the balance could shift during the match. With confidence at a moderate level, the result remains open, although the 1X signal gives Estoril Praia some protection through the possibility of a home win or draw.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring, and both teams are considered likely to find the net. That suggests a competitive game rather than one dominated by defensive caution, with chances expected at both ends. A draw such as 1:1 fits the overall balance, while 2:1 and 1:2 also reflect how closely matched the teams appear. The key question may be which side manages the decisive moments without allowing the game to become too open.
What matters before kick-off
Arouca's opportunity to reach third place
FC Arouca enter matchday 5 of Liga Portugal with nine points from three wins and one defeat. A victory over Estoril would provisionally move them up to third place in the standings.
Estoril searching for first win of the season
GD Estoril Praia sit near the bottom of the table and are looking for their first league victory of the season after recording one draw and three losses in their opening four matches.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.