Estoril Praia — FC Arouca: Win probabilities, 07.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 63.5% |
| 12 | 72.5% | |
| X2 | 63.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.8% / 40.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.1% / 6.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 79.8% / 20.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 55.3% / 44.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 32.9% / 67.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.8% / 83.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.4% / 92.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 07.09.2026
Estoril Praia
17th place · 1 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 31.08.2026 away Benfica 1:2
- 22.08.2026 home Rio Ave 0:2
- 16.08.2026 away Nacional 0:2
- 07.08.2026 home Famalicao 1:1
- 16.05.2026 home Benfica 1:3
FC Arouca
5th place · 9 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 29.08.2026 home Maritimo 2:1
- 23.08.2026 away Porto 0:2
- 16.08.2026 home Moreirense 4:0
- 08.08.2026 away Guimaraes 1:0
- 16.05.2026 home Tondela 3:1
This season: Estoril Praia at home vs FC Arouca away
| Metric | Estoril Praia · at home | FC Arouca · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–1 | 1–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.19 | 0.52 |
| xG against per match | 1.09 | 2.61 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.50 | 1.50 |
| Corners per match | 6.50 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 06.04.2026 FC Arouca 3:2 Estoril Praia
- 07.11.2025 Estoril Praia 4:3 FC Arouca
- 16.03.2025 FC Arouca 1:1 Estoril Praia
- 26.10.2024 Estoril Praia 4:1 FC Arouca
- 20.01.2024 Estoril Praia 1:2 FC Arouca
- 13.08.2023 FC Arouca 4:3 Estoril Praia
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Estoril Praia and FC Arouca look evenly matched ahead of their Liga Portugal meeting. The available assessment gives neither side a decisive advantage, pointing instead to a contest where the balance could shift during the match. With confidence at a moderate level, the result remains open, although the 1X signal gives Estoril Praia some protection through the possibility of a home win or draw.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring, and both teams are considered likely to find the net. That suggests a competitive game rather than one dominated by defensive caution, with chances expected at both ends. A draw such as 1:1 fits the overall balance, while 2:1 and 1:2 also reflect how closely matched the teams appear. The key question may be which side manages the decisive moments without allowing the game to become too open.
What matters before kick-off
Arouca's opportunity to reach third place
FC Arouca enter matchday 5 of Liga Portugal with nine points from three wins and one defeat. A victory over Estoril would provisionally move them up to third place in the standings.
Estoril searching for first win of the season
GD Estoril Praia sit near the bottom of the table and are looking for their first league victory of the season after recording one draw and three losses in their opening four matches.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.