Moreirense FC — SL Benfica: Win probabilities, 09.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 13.6% |
| 12 | 91.6% | |
| X2 | 94.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 40.5% / 59.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 98.0% / 2.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.5% / 13.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 69.4% / 30.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 48.1% / 51.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 29.0% / 71.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 15.3% / 84.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 09.09.2026
Moreirense FC
13th place · 4 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 04.09.2026 away Porto 1:2
- 30.08.2026 away Casa Pia 1:0
- 16.08.2026 away Arouca 0:4
- 09.08.2026 home Sp Braga 2:2
- 16.05.2026 home AVS 0:0
SL Benfica
4th place · 10 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 away Maritimo 3:0
- 31.08.2026 home Estoril 2:1
- 17.08.2026 away Casa Pia 7:0
- 09.08.2026 home Academico Viseu 2:2
- 16.05.2026 away Estoril 3:1
This season: Moreirense FC at home vs SL Benfica away
| Metric | Moreirense FC · at home | SL Benfica · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–0 | 2–0–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| xG for per match | 0.20 | 2.18 |
| xG against per match | 1.50 | 0.13 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| Corners per match | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 25.04.2026 SL Benfica 4:1 Moreirense FC
- 14.12.2025 Moreirense FC 0:4 SL Benfica
- 08.02.2025 SL Benfica 3:2 Moreirense FC
- 30.08.2024 Moreirense FC 1:1 SL Benfica
- 14.04.2024 SL Benfica 3:0 Moreirense FC
- 03.12.2023 Moreirense FC 0:0 SL Benfica
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Moreirense FC host SL Benfica in Liga Portugal, with the available assessment giving the visitors a clear advantage. The matchup points toward an away win, and the high confidence attached to that view suggests a meaningful difference in expected performance between the teams. Moreirense FC will need to remain compact and disciplined if they are to limit SL Benfica’s attacking threat.
The game is also projected to produce several goals, although the scoring outlook is paired with a strong expectation that one side may keep a clean sheet. That combination indicates a match in which SL Benfica could control the main phases, create the better opportunities, and restrict Moreirense FC’s attacking response. The most consistent reading is therefore a high-scoring victory for SL Benfica, with the visitors favoured to win without conceding.
What matters before kick-off
Moreirense squad absences
Moreirense midfielder Liberato is suspended following a red card against FC Porto, while João Veloso is unavailable as he is on loan from Benfica.
Benfica team news
For Benfica, Alexander Bah is recovering from a right shoulder injury, while Jaden Umeh remains sidelined with a right thigh issue.
Benfica's recent trips to Moreirense
Across the previous six seasons, Benfica drew four of their six visits to Moreirense's home ground, including a 1-1 league draw in August 2024.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.