Moreirense FC — SL Benfica: Win probabilities, 09.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 13.6% |
| 12 | 91.6% | |
| X2 | 94.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 40.5% / 59.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 98.0% / 2.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.5% / 13.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 69.4% / 30.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 48.1% / 51.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 29.0% / 71.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 15.3% / 84.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Moreirense FC host SL Benfica in Liga Portugal, with the available assessment giving the visitors a clear advantage. The matchup points toward an away win, and the high confidence attached to that view suggests a meaningful difference in expected performance between the teams. Moreirense FC will need to remain compact and disciplined if they are to limit SL Benfica’s attacking threat.
The game is also projected to produce several goals, although the scoring outlook is paired with a strong expectation that one side may keep a clean sheet. That combination indicates a match in which SL Benfica could control the main phases, create the better opportunities, and restrict Moreirense FC’s attacking response. The most consistent reading is therefore a high-scoring victory for SL Benfica, with the visitors favoured to win without conceding.
What matters before kick-off
Moreirense squad absences
Moreirense midfielder Liberato is suspended following a red card against FC Porto, while João Veloso is unavailable as he is on loan from Benfica.
Benfica team news
For Benfica, Alexander Bah is recovering from a right shoulder injury, while Jaden Umeh remains sidelined with a right thigh issue.
Benfica's recent trips to Moreirense
Across the previous six seasons, Benfica drew four of their six visits to Moreirense's home ground, including a 1-1 league draw in August 2024.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.