Casa Pia Lisbon — FC Porto: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 18.4% |
| 12 | 88.5% | |
| X2 | 93.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 40.1% / 59.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.7% / 3.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.0% / 18.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 61.9% / 38.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 39.6% / 60.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.8% / 78.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.5% / 89.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 12.09.2026
Casa Pia Lisbon
18th place · 1 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.09.2026 away Guimaraes 0:0
- 30.08.2026 home Moreirense 0:1
- 24.08.2026 away Gil Vicente 0:2
- 17.08.2026 home Benfica 0:7
- 08.08.2026 away Maritimo 0:1
FC Porto
1st place · 15 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 04.09.2026 home Moreirense 2:1
- 29.08.2026 away Academico Viseu 3:0
- 23.08.2026 home Arouca 2:0
- 15.08.2026 away Rio Ave 2:0
- 09.08.2026 home Alverca 2:0
This season: Casa Pia Lisbon at home vs FC Porto away
| Metric | Casa Pia Lisbon · at home | FC Porto · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 0–0–2 | 2–0–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.00 | 2.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| xG for per match | 0.45 | 1.73 |
| xG against per match | 1.66 | 0.69 |
| Shots on target per match | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| Corners per match | 3.00 | 3.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 02.02.2026 Casa Pia Lisbon 2:1 FC Porto
- 24.08.2025 FC Porto 4:0 Casa Pia Lisbon
- 12.04.2025 Casa Pia Lisbon 0:1 FC Porto
- 02.12.2024 FC Porto 2:0 Casa Pia Lisbon
- 21.04.2024 Casa Pia Lisbon 1:2 FC Porto
- 09.12.2023 FC Porto 3:1 Casa Pia Lisbon
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Casa Pia Lisbon face FC Porto in Liga Portugal, with the available assessment giving the visitors a clear advantage. The teams are not projected for an especially high-scoring contest, but FC Porto’s stronger overall outlook makes them the more likely side to control the match and create the better opportunities. Casa Pia Lisbon may need to remain compact and limit space in defensive areas if they are to keep the game balanced.
The scoring profile points towards a medium-scoring match, while a clean sheet is considered likely. That combination favours a controlled FC Porto performance rather than an open exchange of chances. The most plausible scorelines are 0:2, 0:1, and 0:3, all of which reflect the same pattern: FC Porto holding the stronger position and Casa Pia Lisbon facing a difficult task to find a breakthrough.
What matters before kick-off
Casa Pia Goalkeeper Injury
Casa Pia goalkeeper André Gomes misses the match against FC Porto due to injury, opening the door for Ivan Mandić in goal.
FC Porto League and European Schedule
FC Porto entered matchday 6 of Liga Portugal with five wins from five league games, coming off a 2-1 victory over Moreirense followed by a 0-2 Champions League loss to Manchester City.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.