Casa Pia Lisbon — FC Porto: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 18.4% |
| 12 | 88.5% | |
| X2 | 93.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 40.1% / 59.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.7% / 3.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.0% / 18.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 61.9% / 38.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 39.6% / 60.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.8% / 78.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.5% / 89.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 10.00 → now 11.00 |
| X | was 6.00 → now 7.00 |
| W2 | was 1.25 → now 1.20 |
Match preview
Casa Pia Lisbon face FC Porto in Liga Portugal, with the available assessment giving the visitors a clear advantage. The teams are not projected for an especially high-scoring contest, but FC Porto’s stronger overall outlook makes them the more likely side to control the match and create the better opportunities. Casa Pia Lisbon may need to remain compact and limit space in defensive areas if they are to keep the game balanced.
The scoring profile points towards a medium-scoring match, while a clean sheet is considered likely. That combination favours a controlled FC Porto performance rather than an open exchange of chances. The most plausible scorelines are 0:2, 0:1, and 0:3, all of which reflect the same pattern: FC Porto holding the stronger position and Casa Pia Lisbon facing a difficult task to find a breakthrough.
What matters before kick-off
Casa Pia Goalkeeper Injury
Casa Pia goalkeeper André Gomes misses the match against FC Porto due to injury, opening the door for Ivan Mandić in goal.
FC Porto League and European Schedule
FC Porto entered matchday 6 of Liga Portugal with five wins from five league games, coming off a 2-1 victory over Moreirense followed by a 0-2 Champions League loss to Manchester City.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
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Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.