SL Benfica — Gil Vicente Barcelos: Win probabilities, 13.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 96.9% |
| 12 | 89.1% | |
| X2 | 14.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 35.4% / 64.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.0% / 4.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.3% / 14.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 65.2% / 34.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 43.2% / 56.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.8% / 75.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.4% / 87.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| X | was 7.50 → now 7.00 |
Match preview
SL Benfica host Gil Vicente Barcelos in Liga Portugal on 13 September 2026. The available assessment gives SL Benfica a clear advantage, with high confidence in the home side’s superiority. That points to a match in which SL Benfica should control much of the play and create the more consistent attacking threat.
The scoring outlook is high, although the assessment also indicates that a clean sheet for SL Benfica is likely. This combination suggests a game where the hosts can build pressure without necessarily allowing Gil Vicente Barcelos many clear opportunities. The projected scorelines of 2:0, 3:0 and 4:0 all reflect the same general pattern: a convincing home performance with the visitors struggling to find a way through. Gil Vicente Barcelos will need to remain disciplined defensively and make efficient use of limited attacking moments, while SL Benfica will look to turn their territorial and technical advantage into a decisive result.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.