SL Benfica — Gil Vicente Barcelos: Win probabilities, 13.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 96.9% |
| 12 | 90.6% | |
| X2 | 12.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 38.7% / 61.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.1% / 2.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 88.2% / 11.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 70.5% / 29.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 49.5% / 50.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 30.2% / 69.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 16.2% / 83.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 13.09.2026
SL Benfica
2nd place · 13 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 09.09.2026 away Moreirense 4:0
- 05.09.2026 away Maritimo 3:0
- 31.08.2026 home Estoril 2:1
- 17.08.2026 away Casa Pia 7:0
- 09.08.2026 home Academico Viseu 2:2
Gil Vicente Barcelos
7th place · 8 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.09.2026 home Academico Viseu 0:1
- 30.08.2026 away Famalicao 0:0
- 24.08.2026 home Casa Pia 2:0
- 16.08.2026 away Sp Braga 0:0
- 09.08.2026 home Rio Ave 1:0
This season: SL Benfica at home vs Gil Vicente Barcelos away
| Metric | SL Benfica · at home | Gil Vicente Barcelos · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 1–1–0 | 0–2–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| xG for per match | 2.58 | 0.27 |
| xG against per match | 0.77 | 0.23 |
| Shots on target per match | 9.50 | 1.00 |
| Corners per match | 9.50 | 3.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 02.03.2026 Gil Vicente Barcelos 1:2 SL Benfica
- 26.09.2025 SL Benfica 2:1 Gil Vicente Barcelos
- 28.03.2025 Gil Vicente Barcelos 0:3 SL Benfica
- 28.09.2024 SL Benfica 5:1 Gil Vicente Barcelos
- 04.02.2024 SL Benfica 3:0 Gil Vicente Barcelos
- 26.08.2023 Gil Vicente Barcelos 2:3 SL Benfica
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
SL Benfica enter this Liga Portugal fixture as the clearly stronger side, with high confidence in a home victory over Gil Vicente Barcelos. The outlook points to a match controlled by the hosts, who are expected to create the more dangerous attacking situations and dictate the overall tempo. The available assessment also suggests a high-scoring contest, with SL Benfica well placed to convert their superiority into several goals.
At the same time, the defensive projection is notable: a clean sheet for SL Benfica is considered likely. That would leave Gil Vicente Barcelos facing a difficult task not only in containing the hosts’ attack but also in generating enough threat of their own. The most plausible scorelines all reflect a comfortable home success with no reply, ranging from a solid win to a more emphatic result. Kickoff is scheduled for 13 September 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
What matters before kick-off
Benfica injury updates
Benfica right-back Alexander Bah will miss the match with a shoulder injury, while forward Jaden Umeh remains unavailable due to a thigh issue.
Benfica recent dominant result
Ahead of hosting Gil Vicente, Benfica secured a 4-0 away victory against Moreirense in their previous Liga Portugal fixture.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.