FC Arouca — Santa Clara Azores: Win probabilities, 13.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 66.4% |
| 12 | 70.8% | |
| X2 | 62.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 51.3% / 48.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.5% / 9.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 71.7% / 28.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 44.8% / 55.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 23.6% / 76.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 10.5% / 89.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.0% / 96.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
FC Arouca and Santa Clara Azores meet in Liga Portugal in a contest that appears closely balanced. The available assessment gives neither side a clear overall advantage, with moderate confidence in an evenly matched game. That points to a match where small details, game management and the ability to convert limited opportunities could prove important, rather than one dominated by a consistently superior team.
The expected scoring profile is medium-scoring, while both teams scoring is viewed as an open question. The most plausible scorelines include 1:1, 1:0 and 0:0, reflecting a range from a cautious draw to a narrow home victory. The market signal favours FC Arouca avoiding defeat, but this is only a slight directional lean within a fundamentally balanced fixture. Santa Clara Azores remain credible opponents, and the overall outlook is better suited to a measured, competitive match than to a one-sided encounter.
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Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.