Rio Ave FC — Estrela Amadora: Win probabilities, 14.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 65.1% |
| 12 | 69.8% | |
| X2 | 65.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.6% / 44.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.8% / 9.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.9% / 24.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 49.0% / 51.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 27.2% / 72.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.8% / 87.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.2% / 94.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 14.09.2026
Rio Ave FC
16th place · 3 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.09.2026 away Santa Clara 0:4
- 28.08.2026 home Sp Lisbon 0:4
- 22.08.2026 away Estoril 2:0
- 15.08.2026 home Porto 0:2
- 09.08.2026 away Gil Vicente 0:1
Estrela Amadora
6th place · 9 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 10.09.2026 home Sp Braga 2:1
- 05.09.2026 home Famalicao 2:2
- 30.08.2026 away Nacional 3:2
- 15.08.2026 away Alverca 2:2
- 08.08.2026 home Sp Lisbon 2:2
This season: Rio Ave FC at home vs Estrela Amadora away
| Metric | Rio Ave FC · at home | Estrela Amadora · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 0–0–2 | 1–1–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.00 | 2.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 0.52 | 1.70 |
| xG against per match | 1.82 | 1.30 |
| Shots on target per match | 0.50 | 5.50 |
| Corners per match | 4.00 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 15.03.2026 Rio Ave FC 2:1 Estrela Amadora
- 25.10.2025 Estrela Amadora 1:2 Rio Ave FC
- 05.05.2025 Rio Ave FC 2:0 Estrela Amadora
- 23.12.2024 Estrela Amadora 1:0 Rio Ave FC
- 14.04.2024 Estrela Amadora 2:2 Rio Ave FC
- 02.12.2023 Rio Ave FC 1:1 Estrela Amadora
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Rio Ave FC and Estrela Amadora meet in Liga Portugal in a contest that appears evenly matched. The available assessment gives neither side a clear advantage, pointing instead to a balanced game in which control may shift between the teams. With moderate confidence in this reading, the safest analytical angle is a slight lean toward Rio Ave FC avoiding defeat, rather than a firm expectation of a home win.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring, although the available information does not strongly separate the possible patterns. Both teams scoring is assessed as a coin flip, leaving room for either an open exchange or a more cautious match. The most plausible scorelines are 1:1, 0:0 and 2:1, which reflect the narrow balance between the sides and the uncertainty around the final attacking output.
What matters before kick-off
Rio Ave's historical head-to-head advantage
Across all competitive meetings, Rio Ave holds the advantage over Estrela Amadora with 18 victories compared to Estrela's 9 wins, including 13 home wins in 18 games at Estádio dos Arcos.
Estrela Amadora's recent win over Braga
In their match prior to the round, Estrela Amadora secured a 2-1 home victory against Braga powered by a brace from Ianis Stoica.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.