Rio Ave FC — Estrela Amadora: Win probabilities, 14.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 62.2% |
| 12 | 71.4% | |
| X2 | 66.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.8% / 47.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.2% / 8.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 73.2% / 26.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 46.9% / 53.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 25.3% / 74.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.5% / 88.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.5% / 95.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Rio Ave FC and Estrela Amadora appear evenly matched ahead of their Liga Portugal meeting. The available assessment points to a moderate level of confidence, with neither side holding a decisive advantage. That suggests a contest likely to be shaped by small margins, game management and how effectively each team handles the key phases of play.
The match is expected to fall into a medium-scoring range, while the possibility of both teams finding the net remains finely balanced. Estrela Amadora may have a slight edge in the broader outcome signal, particularly in scenarios where the visitors avoid defeat, but the draw remains a credible possibility. Rio Ave FC should still be competitive on home ground, making this a potentially cautious and closely contested fixture rather than one with a clear favourite.
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Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.