SC Braga — Estoril Praia: Win probabilities, 14.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 88.6% |
| 12 | 78.7% | |
| X2 | 32.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 47.3% / 52.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.2% / 6.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.5% / 21.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 54.0% / 46.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.7% / 68.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.8% / 84.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.9% / 93.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 1.50 → now 1.44 |
| W2 | was 6.50 → now 7.50 |
Match preview
SC Braga enter this Liga Portugal meeting with a clear but not overwhelming advantage over Estoril Praia. The available assessment points towards the home side being stronger, although the moderate confidence level suggests that this should be viewed as a measured expectation rather than a decisive forecast. Estoril Praia remain capable of making the contest competitive, particularly if they can keep the match balanced early.
The scoring outlook is medium, with the most plausible scenarios pointing towards a controlled game rather than an open shootout. There is no clear indication that both teams will score, making that aspect of the match difficult to separate. SC Braga appear more likely to control the overall outcome, while Estoril Praia's prospects may depend on their ability to resist pressure and take advantage of limited opportunities. The balance of the assessment favours the hosts, but the range of likely scorelines indicates that a narrow result or a draw remains within consideration.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.