Moreirense FC — Maritimo Madeira: Win probabilities, 14.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 68.9% |
| 12 | 71.0% | |
| X2 | 60.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 51.0% / 49.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.5% / 9.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 71.6% / 28.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 44.8% / 55.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 23.6% / 76.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 10.5% / 89.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.0% / 96.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.45 → now 2.38 |
| W2 | was 2.90 → now 3.00 |
Match preview
Moreirense FC and Maritimo Madeira appear evenly matched ahead of their Liga Portugal meeting. The available assessment points to a moderate level of confidence, with neither side holding a clear overall advantage. That suggests a contest likely to be decided by small details, with the home side’s venue balanced against Maritimo Madeira’s ability to remain competitive.
The match is projected to have a medium-scoring profile, although the possibility of both teams finding the net remains finely balanced. A draw is a credible outcome, while a narrow victory for either team also fits the expected shape of the game. Scores such as 1-1, 1-0, or 0-0 reflect the uncertainty around the contest and indicate that a controlled, closely fought encounter may be more likely than an open match with a decisive early swing.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.