Moreirense FC — Maritimo Madeira: Win probabilities, 14.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 63.7% |
| 12 | 69.9% | |
| X2 | 66.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 51.2% / 48.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 89.9% / 10.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 71.5% / 28.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 44.2% / 55.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 23.1% / 76.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 10.2% / 89.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.8% / 96.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 14.09.2026
Moreirense FC
15th place · 4 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 09.09.2026 home Benfica 0:4
- 04.09.2026 away Porto 1:2
- 30.08.2026 away Casa Pia 1:0
- 16.08.2026 away Arouca 0:4
- 09.08.2026 home Sp Braga 2:2
Maritimo Madeira
10th place · 7 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 home Benfica 0:3
- 29.08.2026 away Arouca 1:2
- 22.08.2026 home Academico Viseu 2:2
- 16.08.2026 away Famalicao 2:1
- 08.08.2026 home Casa Pia 1:0
This season: Moreirense FC at home vs Maritimo Madeira away
| Metric | Moreirense FC · at home | Maritimo Madeira · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–1 | 1–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 3.00 | 1.50 |
| xG for per match | 0.29 | 1.14 |
| xG against per match | 2.25 | 1.13 |
| Shots on target per match | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| Corners per match | 3.50 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 06.03.2022 Moreirense FC 0:1 Maritimo Madeira
- 01.10.2021 Maritimo Madeira 0:0 Moreirense FC
- 07.03.2021 Maritimo Madeira 0:2 Moreirense FC
- 25.10.2020 Moreirense FC 2:1 Maritimo Madeira
- 08.03.2020 Moreirense FC 2:0 Maritimo Madeira
- 28.09.2019 Maritimo Madeira 2:1 Moreirense FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Moreirense FC and Maritimo Madeira meet in Liga Portugal in a contest that looks evenly matched, with moderate confidence in that assessment. Neither side is identified as having a clear overall advantage, so the balance of the game may depend on which team manages its phases of play more effectively. The available outlook gives the visitors and a draw greater consideration through the X2 signal, but this remains a close matchup rather than a decisive lean.
The scoring expectation is medium, with several plausible paths to the result. A 1:1 draw is among the likely scorelines, while a narrow Maritimo Madeira win and a goalless draw are also possible scenarios. Whether both teams score is considered a coin flip, which underlines the uncertainty around the attacking contribution from each side. Moreirense FC should therefore be expected to remain competitive, while Maritimo Madeira may look to use the small statistical preference indicated by the market.
What matters before kick-off
Guilherme Liberato suspension
Moreirense midfielder Guilherme Liberato received a two-match ban from the FPF Disciplinary Committee following a red card against FC Porto. The suspension rules him out of the match against Marítimo.
Both teams seeking response after consecutive losses
Both Moreirense and Marítimo enter this fixture looking to bounce back following two consecutive league defeats.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.