Academico de Viseu FC — Vitoria SC Guimaraes: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 52.2% |
| 12 | 71.9% | |
| X2 | 75.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 51.9% / 48.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.1% / 8.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.0% / 26.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 47.5% / 52.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 25.9% / 74.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.9% / 88.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.7% / 95.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Academico de Viseu FC will host Vitoria SC Guimaraes in Liga Portugal on 12 September 2026. The available assessment gives Vitoria SC Guimaraes a slight edge, with the away side holding the stronger overall position in this matchup. The X2 signal also points toward avoiding a home win, although the draw remains a realistic outcome.
The game is expected to produce a medium level of scoring rather than develop into a highly open contest. Both teams scoring is viewed as finely balanced, so there is no clear indication that either side will consistently control the attacking phases. Academico de Viseu FC should have opportunities, particularly if they can make effective use of home advantage, while Vitoria SC Guimaraes appear better placed to manage the decisive moments. A draw such as 1:1 is a credible scenario, alongside narrow away victories such as 0:1 or 1:2. Overall, the analysis favours Vitoria SC Guimaraes, but with a competitive match expected.
What matters before kick-off
Top-flight meeting host at Estádio Municipal do Fontelo
Académico de Viseu host Vitória SC at the Estádio Municipal do Fontelo as the two sides meet in Liga Portugal.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.