Nacional da Madeira — FC Alverca SAD: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 60.2% |
| 12 | 72.4% | |
| X2 | 67.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.3% / 46.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.9% / 8.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 73.8% / 26.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 48.1% / 51.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 26.3% / 73.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.2% / 87.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.9% / 95.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 12.09.2026
Nacional da Madeira
11th place · 4 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 away Sp Lisbon 0:2
- 30.08.2026 home Estrela 2:3
- 23.08.2026 away Guimaraes 0:1
- 16.08.2026 home Estoril 2:0
- 10.08.2026 away Santa Clara 2:2
FC Alverca SAD
16th place · 2 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 home Sp Braga 1:2
- 29.08.2026 home Santa Clara 1:1
- 22.08.2026 away Sp Lisbon 1:3
- 15.08.2026 home Estrela 2:2
- 09.08.2026 away Porto 0:2
This season: Nacional da Madeira at home vs FC Alverca SAD away
| Metric | Nacional da Madeira · at home | FC Alverca SAD · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–1 | 0–0–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 0.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.50 | 2.50 |
| xG for per match | 1.46 | 1.04 |
| xG against per match | 1.46 | 2.36 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| Corners per match | 5.50 | 6.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
- 18.04.2026 Nacional da Madeira 1:0 FC Alverca SAD
- 07.12.2025 FC Alverca SAD 1:0 Nacional da Madeira
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Nacional da Madeira and FC Alverca SAD meet in Liga Portugal in a fixture that appears closely balanced. The available assessment points to an evenly matched contest, with moderate confidence rather than a strong advantage for either side. That suggests the game may be decided by small moments, and neither team enters the preview with a clearly superior profile.
The scoring outlook is medium, making a controlled but competitive match plausible. Both teams scoring is considered uncertain, so the game could develop into an open exchange or remain tighter than expected. The overall signal gives FC Alverca SAD a slight edge in the possibility of avoiding defeat, although the balance of likely outcomes still includes a home win and a draw. Scores such as 1:1, 0:1 and 1:0 reflect that narrow margin and underline the difficulty of separating Nacional da Madeira from FC Alverca SAD before kickoff.
What matters before kick-off
Recent league results
Nacional enter the match following a 2-0 defeat away to Sporting CP in their previous Liga Portugal fixture. FC Alverca coming off a 2-1 home loss against Braga.
Match referee appointed
Miguel Fonseca has been appointed as the main referee for the encounter at the Estádio da Madeira.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.