Nacional da Madeira — FC Alverca SAD: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 60.2% |
| 12 | 72.4% | |
| X2 | 67.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.3% / 46.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.9% / 8.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 73.8% / 26.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 48.1% / 51.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 26.3% / 73.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.2% / 87.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.9% / 95.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.60 → now 2.90 |
| W2 | was 2.70 → now 2.40 |
Match preview
Nacional da Madeira and FC Alverca SAD meet in Liga Portugal in a fixture that appears closely balanced. The available assessment points to an evenly matched contest, with moderate confidence rather than a strong advantage for either side. That suggests the game may be decided by small moments, and neither team enters the preview with a clearly superior profile.
The scoring outlook is medium, making a controlled but competitive match plausible. Both teams scoring is considered uncertain, so the game could develop into an open exchange or remain tighter than expected. The overall signal gives FC Alverca SAD a slight edge in the possibility of avoiding defeat, although the balance of likely outcomes still includes a home win and a draw. Scores such as 1:1, 0:1 and 1:0 reflect that narrow margin and underline the difficulty of separating Nacional da Madeira from FC Alverca SAD before kickoff.
What matters before kick-off
Recent league results
Nacional enter the match following a 2-0 defeat away to Sporting CP in their previous Liga Portugal fixture. FC Alverca coming off a 2-1 home loss against Braga.
Match referee appointed
Miguel Fonseca has been appointed as the main referee for the encounter at the Estádio da Madeira.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.