Estrela Amadora — SC Braga: Win probabilities, 10.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 36.5% |
| 12 | 77.1% | |
| X2 | 86.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 46.1% / 53.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.3% / 7.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.1% / 24.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 49.6% / 50.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 27.7% / 72.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.1% / 86.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.3% / 94.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 10.09.2026
Estrela Amadora
9th place · 6 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 home Famalicao 2:2
- 30.08.2026 away Nacional 3:2
- 15.08.2026 away Alverca 2:2
- 08.08.2026 home Sp Lisbon 2:2
- 16.05.2026 away Sp Braga 2:2
SC Braga
6th place · 8 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 away Alverca 2:1
- 31.08.2026 home Guimaraes 1:0
- 16.08.2026 home Gil Vicente 0:0
- 09.08.2026 away Moreirense 2:2
- 16.05.2026 home Estrela 2:2
This season: Estrela Amadora at home vs SC Braga away
| Metric | Estrela Amadora · at home | SC Braga · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 0–2–0 | 1–1–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| xG for per match | 0.98 | 1.88 |
| xG against per match | 2.22 | 0.64 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| Corners per match | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 16.05.2026 SC Braga 2:2 Estrela Amadora
- 03.01.2026 Estrela Amadora 3:3 SC Braga
- 19.01.2025 Estrela Amadora 0:1 SC Braga
- 11.08.2024 SC Braga 1:1 Estrela Amadora
- 02.03.2024 SC Braga 3:0 Estrela Amadora
- 28.09.2023 Estrela Amadora 2:4 SC Braga
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Estrela Amadora face SC Braga in a Liga Portugal fixture where the visitors hold the clearer overall edge. The assessment points toward SC Braga being the stronger side, although the moderate confidence suggests that this advantage should be viewed with some caution rather than as a decisive conclusion. Estrela Amadora will need to stay compact and make the most of their opportunities if they are to disrupt the expected balance of play.
The match is projected to fall into a medium-scoring pattern, with neither a clearly open nor especially defensive contest indicated. Both teams scoring remains difficult to separate, so that aspect offers no firm direction. The main analytical signal is therefore toward SC Braga, while a draw remains a plausible alternative if Estrela Amadora can limit the visitors' attacking influence.
What matters before kick-off
Rescheduled Liga Portugal Matchday 3 Fixture
The match between Estrela Amadora and SC Braga on September 10, 2026, is a rescheduled fixture from Matchday 3 of the 2026-27 Liga Portugal season. Both teams enter the game unbeaten in the current league campaign.
Recent Head-to-Head Record
The last two competitive meetings between Estrela Amadora and SC Braga ended in draws, including a 2-2 result in May 2026.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.