FC Alverca SAD — SC Braga: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 44.2% |
| 12 | 73.7% | |
| X2 | 82.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 47.6% / 52.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.0% / 9.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 72.8% / 27.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 46.3% / 53.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 24.8% / 75.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.2% / 88.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.4% / 95.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.09.2026
FC Alverca SAD
16th place · 2 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 29.08.2026 home Santa Clara 1:1
- 22.08.2026 away Sp Lisbon 1:3
- 15.08.2026 home Estrela 2:2
- 09.08.2026 away Porto 0:2
- 16.05.2026 away Famalicao 0:1
SC Braga
9th place · 5 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 31.08.2026 home Guimaraes 1:0
- 16.08.2026 home Gil Vicente 0:0
- 09.08.2026 away Moreirense 2:2
- 16.05.2026 home Estrela 2:2
- 11.05.2026 away Benfica 2:2
This season: FC Alverca SAD at home vs SC Braga away
| Metric | FC Alverca SAD · at home | SC Braga · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 0–2–0 | 0–1–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.08 | 1.50 |
| xG against per match | 1.35 | 0.20 |
| Shots on target per match | 2.50 | 4.00 |
| Corners per match | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
- 25.01.2026 SC Braga 5:0 FC Alverca SAD
- 17.08.2025 FC Alverca SAD 0:3 SC Braga
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
FC Alverca SAD face SC Braga in Liga Portugal, with the available indicators pointing to a slight edge for the visitors, although confidence in that assessment is low. The balance is therefore not decisive, and FC Alverca SAD should remain competitive if they can keep the match controlled and limit SC Braga’s opportunities in advanced areas.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring, while the possibility of both teams finding the net is finely balanced. The market signal points towards a match staying under its broader scoring line, suggesting that the contest may be shaped by periods of caution rather than sustained attacking momentum. The most likely scorelines are 0:1, 1:1 and 0:2, which reflect SC Braga’s narrow advantage but also leave room for a closely contested draw.
What matters before kick-off
SC Braga's unbeaten start
SC Braga enter the match undefeated across all competitions in the 2026/27 season. The team successfully navigated three qualifying rounds to secure a place in the UEFA Conference League league phase.
FC Alverca SAD search for first win
FC Alverca SAD under head coach Sérgio Ferreira have yet to secure their first victory in the current Liga Portugal campaign.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.