Vilnius FK Zalgiris — HNK Hajduk Split: Win probabilities, 06.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 50.8% |
| 12 | 74.2% | |
| X2 | 75.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 54.4% / 45.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.9% / 7.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.4% / 23.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 51.6% / 48.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 29.4% / 70.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.3% / 85.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.0% / 94.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Vilnius FK Zalgiris and HNK Hajduk Split meet in the UEFA Conference League Qualification, with the available assessment giving HNK Hajduk Split a slight edge. The signal points toward an away-friendly result that also keeps the draw firmly in consideration, so the overall outlook is better described as support for the visitors avoiding defeat rather than a decisive prediction.
The match is projected to be medium-scoring, suggesting a contest with enough attacking threat without pointing to an unusually open game. Whether both teams score is finely balanced, which adds uncertainty to the exact pattern of the match. Vilnius FK Zalgiris will have home advantage, but HNK Hajduk Split are rated more favorably in the overall outcome assessment. The most plausible scenarios therefore include a close draw or a narrow victory for HNK Hajduk Split.
What matters before kick-off
Third qualifying round fixture
Vilnius FK Zalgiris host HNK Hajduk Split in the first leg of the UEFA Conference League third qualifying round on August 6, 2026.
Team connections
Vilnius FK Zalgiris squad includes two former Hajduk Split players, defender Petar Bosancic and midfielder Marko Capan, with Andrius Skerla serving as head coach.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.