FC Sheriff Tiraspol — FC St. Gallen 1879: Win probabilities, 06.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 50.2% |
| 12 | 73.6% | |
| X2 | 76.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.9% / 42.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.1% / 6.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 79.9% / 20.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 55.3% / 44.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 33.0% / 67.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.8% / 83.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.4% / 92.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
FC Sheriff Tiraspol face FC St. Gallen 1879 in a UEFA Conference League qualification match that looks competitive but leans toward the visitors. FC St. Gallen 1879 hold the clearer overall position in the assessment, although the gap is not large enough to dismiss FC Sheriff Tiraspol’s chances of staying involved throughout the match. The stronger signal supports avoiding a home defeat, with an away win or draw appearing the more likely outcome.
The game is expected to produce a moderate number of goals rather than become an extreme attacking contest. Both teams scoring remains finely balanced, so the match could develop in several directions depending on which side controls the key phases. A level score such as 1:1 is a credible possibility, while 1:2 and 0:2 reflect the visitors’ stronger standing in the forecast. FC Sheriff Tiraspol will need to limit FC St. Gallen 1879’s opportunities and remain efficient when chances arise.
What matters before kick-off
Drop from Europa League qualifying
FC St. Gallen entered the UEFA Conference League third qualifying round after being eliminated from Europa League qualifying by SL Benfica. Sheriff Tiraspol also dropped down following their defeat to Maccabi Tel Aviv.
First-leg match details
The UEFA Conference League third qualifying round first leg between Sheriff Tiraspol and FC St. Gallen takes place on 6 August 2026 at the Sheriff Main Arena in Tiraspol. Swedish referee Adam Ladebäck was appointed to officiate the match.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.