FC Dynamo Kyiv — Qarabag FK: Win probabilities, 06.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 73.6% |
| 12 | 72.6% | |
| X2 | 53.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.4% / 46.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.9% / 8.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.0% / 25.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 49.1% / 50.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 27.3% / 72.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.8% / 87.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.2% / 94.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
FC Dynamo Kyiv have a slight edge over Qarabag FK in this UEFA Conference League qualification tie. The assessment carries high confidence, although the balance of the matchup does not point to a one-sided contest. FC Dynamo Kyiv are favoured to avoid defeat, while Qarabag FK remain capable of making the game competitive.
The expected profile is medium-scoring, with both teams scoring considered finely balanced. The most plausible scorelines are 1:1, 1:0, and 2:1, which reflects a narrow margin rather than clear dominance. FC Dynamo Kyiv’s home advantage gives them the stronger overall position, but Qarabag FK should have opportunities to stay involved if they can match the hosts’ attacking output.
What matters before kick-off
Neutral venue for the first leg
The first leg of the UEFA Conference League third qualifying round between Dynamo Kyiv and Qarabag FK takes place in Lublin, Poland, at Arena Lublin.
Qarabag's move to Conference League
Qarabag FK dropped into the Conference League following their elimination from the UEFA Europa League second qualifying round in a penalty shootout against Bulgarian side CSKA Sofia.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.