Match intelligence

Debreceni VSC — FC Copenhagen: Win probabilities, 06.08.2026

League: UEFA Conference League, Qualification · Kick-off:

Full time

Final result

✓ Prediction hit
Debreceni VSC0
:
3FC Copenhagen
Locked signal W2 Probability 60.4% Verdict Hit
Mathematical model

Win probabilities

Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin

Odds updated
W1 16.6% Home win Debreceni VSC
X 22.9% Draw
W2 60.4% Away win FC Copenhagen
Market matrix

Markets

Double chance
X283.4%
Both teams to score
Yes50.4%
Totals 2.5
Over52.5%

All calculated markets

MarketSelectionProbability
Double chance1X39.6%
1277.1%
X283.4%
Both teams to scoreYes/No50.4% / 49.6%
Totals 0.5 Over/Under 93.3% / 6.7%
Totals 1.5 Over/Under 77.0% / 23.0%
Totals 2.5 Over/Under 52.5% / 47.5%
Totals 3.5 Over/Under 30.3% / 69.7%
Totals 4.5 Over/Under 14.9% / 85.1%
Totals 5.5 Over/Under 6.3% / 93.7%
Goal distribution model

Score probability heatmap

Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally

Debreceni VSC × FC Copenhagen
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0 6.7%
0:1 11.3%
0:2 11.1%
0:3 7.0%
0:4 3.3%
0:5 1.2%
1
1:0 5.0%
1:1 10.9%
1:2 9.9%
1:3 6.2%
1:4 2.9%
1:5 1.1%
2
2:0 2.4%
2:1 4.6%
2:2 4.4%
2:3 2.8%
2:4 1.3%
2:5 0.5%
3
3:0 0.7%
3:1 1.4%
3:2 1.3%
3:3 0.8%
3:4 0.4%
3:5 0.1%
4
4:0 0.2%
4:1 0.3%
4:2 0.3%
4:3 0.2%
4:4 0.1%
4:5 0.0%
5
5:0 0.0%
5:1 0.1%
5:2 0.1%
5:3 0.0%
5:4 0.0%
5:5 0.0%
Most likely scores
0:111.3%
0:211.1%
1:110.9%
1:29.9%
0:37.0%
✦
AI analysis

Match preview

Model · GPT 5.6 Luna

Debreceni VSC host FC Copenhagen in the UEFA Conference League qualification, with the available assessment giving the visitors a clear but not overwhelming edge. FC Copenhagen appear better placed to control the match, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the gap should not be treated as decisive. Debreceni VSC will need to remain compact and make effective use of their opportunities if they are to disrupt the expected balance of play.

The scoring outlook is medium, pointing towards a match with a controlled number of chances rather than an open contest. The most plausible scorelines include a narrow FC Copenhagen win, a more comfortable away victory, or a draw, which reflects some uncertainty despite the visitors being rated stronger. Both teams scoring is essentially evenly balanced, so the match could develop either into a clean-sheet result for FC Copenhagen or a contest in which Debreceni VSC find a way onto the scoresheet.

Current context

What matters before kick-off

Updated
Match fact

High temperature factor in Debrecen

FC Copenhagen head coach Bo Svensson noted that extreme heat at the Nagyerdei Stadion will be a significant factor in their first-leg qualifier against Debreceni VSC.

Schedule

FC Copenhagen's qualification route

FC Copenhagen reached the UEFA Conference League third qualifying round to face Debreceni VSC after securing a 5-4 aggregate win over FC Polissya.

AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.

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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.

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