Match intelligence

Inter Club de Escaldes — Tallinna FC Flora: Win probabilities, 06.08.2026

League: UEFA Conference League, Qualification · Kick-off:

Full time

Final result

✓ Prediction hit
Inter Club de Escaldes2
:
0Tallinna FC Flora
Locked signal 1X Probability 71.7% Verdict Hit
Mathematical model

Win probabilities

Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin

Odds updated
W1 42.5% Home win Inter Club de Escaldes
X 29.3% Draw
W2 28.3% Away win Tallinna FC Flora
Market matrix

Markets

Double chance
1X71.7%
Both teams to score
Yes52.8%
Totals 2.5
Under53.1%

All calculated markets

MarketSelectionProbability
Double chance1X71.7%
1270.7%
X257.5%
Both teams to scoreYes/No52.8% / 47.2%
Totals 0.5 Over/Under 90.7% / 9.3%
Totals 1.5 Over/Under 73.8% / 26.2%
Totals 2.5 Over/Under 46.9% / 53.1%
Totals 3.5 Over/Under 25.3% / 74.7%
Totals 4.5 Over/Under 11.6% / 88.4%
Totals 5.5 Over/Under 4.5% / 95.5%
Goal distribution model

Score probability heatmap

Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally

Inter Club de Escaldes × Tallinna FC Flora
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0 9.3%
0:1 7.3%
0:2 4.9%
0:3 1.8%
0:4 0.5%
0:5 0.1%
1
1:0 9.7%
1:1 14.0%
1:2 7.0%
1:3 2.6%
1:4 0.7%
1:5 0.2%
2
2:0 7.9%
2:1 8.9%
2:2 5.0%
2:3 1.9%
2:4 0.5%
2:5 0.1%
3
3:0 3.8%
3:1 4.2%
3:2 2.4%
3:3 0.9%
3:4 0.3%
3:5 0.1%
4
4:0 1.3%
4:1 1.5%
4:2 0.9%
4:3 0.3%
4:4 0.1%
4:5 0.0%
5
5:0 0.4%
5:1 0.4%
5:2 0.2%
5:3 0.1%
5:4 0.0%
5:5 0.0%
Most likely scores
1:114.0%
1:09.7%
0:09.3%
2:18.9%
2:07.9%
✦
AI analysis

Match preview

Model · GPT 5.6 Luna

Inter Club de Escaldes hold a slight edge over Tallinna FC Flora in this UEFA Conference League qualifying tie, although the moderate confidence suggests a fairly competitive contest rather than a clear mismatch. The home side may benefit from playing on its own ground, but the assessment points toward a narrow balance between the teams. That makes protection against defeat the more cautious angle, with a draw remaining a realistic possibility.

The match is projected to produce a medium level of scoring, without a strong indication that either side will dominate the attacking phases. Both teams scoring is considered finely balanced, so the game could develop into a controlled encounter with limited separation on the scoreboard. Inter Club de Escaldes appear marginally better placed, but Tallinna FC Flora have enough of a platform to keep the tie close. The overall outlook is therefore for a tight match in which the hosts have the more credible claim, while a stalemate remains firmly in consideration.

Current context

What matters before kick-off

Updated
Match fact

Inter Escaldes third round debut

Andorran side Inter Club d'Escaldes are appearing in the third qualifying round of the UEFA Conference League for the first time in their history.

AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.

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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.

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