Match intelligence

Riga FC — WKW ETO FC Gyor: Win probabilities, 06.08.2026

League: UEFA Conference League, Qualification · Kick-off:

Full time

Final result

✓ Prediction hit
Riga FC1
:
0WKW ETO FC Gyor
Locked signal 1X Probability 70.9% Verdict Hit
Mathematical model

Win probabilities

Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin

Odds updated
W1 46.9% Home win Riga FC
X 24.0% Draw
W2 29.1% Away win WKW ETO FC Gyor
Market matrix

Markets

Double chance
1276.0%
Both teams to score
Yes56.5%
Totals 2.5
Over54.5%

All calculated markets

MarketSelectionProbability
Double chance1X72.3%
1276.0%
X251.7%
Both teams to scoreYes/No56.5% / 43.5%
Totals 0.5 Over/Under 94.4% / 5.6%
Totals 1.5 Over/Under 77.8% / 22.2%
Totals 2.5 Over/Under 54.5% / 45.5%
Totals 3.5 Over/Under 32.2% / 67.8%
Totals 4.5 Over/Under 16.2% / 83.8%
Totals 5.5 Over/Under 7.1% / 92.9%
Goal distribution model

Score probability heatmap

Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally

Riga FC × WKW ETO FC Gyor
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0 5.6%
0:1 7.0%
0:2 4.1%
0:3 1.6%
0:4 0.5%
0:5 0.1%
1
1:0 9.6%
1:1 11.3%
1:2 6.8%
1:3 2.7%
1:4 0.8%
1:5 0.2%
2
2:0 7.9%
2:1 9.5%
2:2 5.7%
2:3 2.3%
2:4 0.7%
2:5 0.2%
3
3:0 4.4%
3:1 5.2%
3:2 3.1%
3:3 1.3%
3:4 0.4%
3:5 0.1%
4
4:0 1.8%
4:1 2.2%
4:2 1.3%
4:3 0.5%
4:4 0.2%
4:5 0.0%
5
5:0 0.6%
5:1 0.7%
5:2 0.4%
5:3 0.2%
5:4 0.1%
5:5 0.0%
Most likely scores
1:111.3%
1:09.6%
2:19.5%
2:07.9%
0:17.0%
✦
AI analysis

Match preview

Model · GPT 5.6 Luna

Riga FC have a slight edge over WKW ETO FC Gyor in this UEFA Conference League qualification tie, although the moderate confidence level points to a competitive match rather than a clear mismatch. The available outlook supports the home side as the more likely team to avoid defeat, with the 1X signal indicating that Riga FC are favoured to win or draw.

The scoring expectation is medium, suggesting a match with a reasonable but not excessive number of goals. Both teams scoring remains difficult to separate, so the game could develop in either direction depending on which side controls the key phases. The most plausible scorelines are 1:1, 1:0 and 2:1, reflecting a narrow contest in which Riga FC may have enough at home to claim the stronger result, but WKW ETO FC Gyor remain capable of contributing to the scoreline.

Current context

What matters before kick-off

Updated
Schedule

Third qualifying round fixture

Riga FC host Hungarian side ETO FC Gyor at Skonto Stadium in the first leg of the 2026/27 UEFA Conference League third qualifying round.

AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.

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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.

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