Vilnius FK Zalgiris — FC Dinamo Tbilisi: Win probabilities, 30.07.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 73.3% |
| 12 | 75.8% | |
| X2 | 50.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.6% / 42.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.4% / 5.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 79.0% / 21.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 55.8% / 44.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 33.5% / 66.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 17.1% / 82.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.6% / 92.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Vilnius FK Zalgiris hold a slight but meaningful edge over FC Dinamo Tbilisi in this UEFA Conference League qualification tie. The assessment points toward a competitive match in which the hosts have the stronger overall outcome profile, although the gap between the teams is not wide enough to expect a one-sided contest. Home advantage gives Vilnius FK Zalgiris a platform to control more of the game, while FC Dinamo Tbilisi remain capable of keeping the result balanced.
A medium-scoring match is the most likely general pattern, with both teams scoring considered an evenly balanced possibility rather than a clear expectation. The main scorelines identified are 1-1, 2-1, and 1-0, which reflects the narrow margins involved. Overall, the match leans toward Vilnius FK Zalgiris, while a draw remains a credible outcome and FC Dinamo Tbilisi cannot be discounted.
What matters before kick-off
First-leg qualification result
FC Dinamo Tbilisi holds a three-goal lead heading into the second leg of the UEFA Conference League second qualifying round after defeating Žalgiris 3-0 in the first leg on July 23, 2026.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.