Match intelligence

Petrocub Hincesti — FK Borac Banja Luka: Win probabilities, 30.07.2026

League: UEFA Conference League, Qualification · Kick-off:

Full time

Final result

✓ Prediction hit
Petrocub Hincesti3
:
3FK Borac Banja Luka
Locked signal X2 Probability 71.6% Verdict Hit
Mathematical model

Win probabilities

Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin

Odds updated
W1 28.4% Home win Petrocub Hincesti
X 24.0% Draw
W2 47.6% Away win FK Borac Banja Luka
Market matrix

Markets

Double chance
1276.0%
Both teams to score
Yes50.8%
Totals 2.5
Under52.0%

All calculated markets

MarketSelectionProbability
Double chance1X52.4%
1276.0%
X271.6%
Both teams to scoreYes/No50.8% / 49.2%
Totals 0.5 Over/Under 93.4% / 6.6%
Totals 1.5 Over/Under 72.3% / 27.7%
Totals 2.5 Over/Under 48.0% / 52.0%
Totals 3.5 Over/Under 26.3% / 73.7%
Totals 4.5 Over/Under 12.2% / 87.8%
Totals 5.5 Over/Under 4.9% / 95.1%
Goal distribution model

Score probability heatmap

Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally

Petrocub Hincesti × FK Borac Banja Luka
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0 6.6%
0:1 12.1%
0:2 8.4%
0:3 4.2%
0:4 1.6%
0:5 0.5%
1
1:0 9.0%
1:1 11.4%
1:2 9.2%
1:3 4.6%
1:4 1.7%
1:5 0.5%
2
2:0 4.4%
2:1 6.7%
2:2 5.0%
2:3 2.5%
2:4 0.9%
2:5 0.3%
3
3:0 1.6%
3:1 2.4%
3:2 1.8%
3:3 0.9%
3:4 0.3%
3:5 0.1%
4
4:0 0.4%
4:1 0.7%
4:2 0.5%
4:3 0.3%
4:4 0.1%
4:5 0.0%
5
5:0 0.1%
5:1 0.1%
5:2 0.1%
5:3 0.1%
5:4 0.0%
5:5 0.0%
Most likely scores
0:112.1%
1:111.4%
1:29.2%
1:09.0%
0:28.4%
✦
AI analysis

Match preview

Model · GPT 5.6 Luna

Petrocub Hincesti host FK Borac Banja Luka in the UEFA Conference League qualification round, with the visitors carrying a slight edge in the pre-match assessment. The outlook is not one-sided, however, and the home side remains within reach of a positive result. The main indication points towards a competitive match in which Borac may be marginally better placed to control decisive moments.

A medium-scoring game is expected, while the prospect of both teams finding the net is finely balanced. That combination leaves several plausible pathways, ranging from a narrow Borac victory to a draw, with a one-goal margin appearing consistent with the overall assessment. Petrocub Hincesti will look to use home advantage to keep the contest close, whereas FK Borac Banja Luka has the stronger outcome signal heading into the tie.

Current context

What matters before kick-off

Updated
Schedule

First-leg result

In the first leg of the UEFA Conference League second qualifying round, Borac Banja Luka secured a 3-0 home victory over Petrocub Hincesti.

AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.

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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.

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