FK Velez Mostar — DAC 1904 Dunajska Streda: Win probabilities, 30.07.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 48.0% |
| 12 | 75.2% | |
| X2 | 76.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 50.0% / 50.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.6% / 7.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 73.0% / 27.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 48.0% / 52.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 26.2% / 73.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.1% / 87.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.8% / 95.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
FK Velez Mostar face DAC 1904 Dunajska Streda in the UEFA Conference League qualification, with the visitors holding a slight overall edge. The outlook points toward a competitive match rather than a one-sided contest, but DAC 1904 Dunajska Streda appear better placed to avoid defeat. FK Velez Mostar will need to make home advantage count and keep the game controlled, particularly if the visitors manage to establish the rhythm early.
A medium-scoring match is expected, with the balance between both teams finding the net remaining finely poised. That makes several game patterns plausible: a narrow win for DAC 1904 Dunajska Streda, a controlled away performance with limited chances, or a draw if FK Velez Mostar can remain compact and efficient in key moments. The safer analytical angle is therefore toward the visitors avoiding defeat, while the margin between the teams may remain small throughout.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.