FC Dinamo Minsk — Neftchi Baku PFC: Win probabilities, 30.07.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 61.2% |
| 12 | 75.0% | |
| X2 | 63.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 51.8% / 48.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.2% / 6.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 72.2% / 27.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 47.7% / 52.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 26.0% / 74.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.0% / 88.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.8% / 95.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
FC Dinamo Minsk and Neftchi Baku PFC meet in the UEFA Conference League Qualification in a contest that looks evenly matched. The available assessment gives neither side a clear overall advantage, with moderate confidence in that reading. Both teams have a plausible route to controlling periods of the game, so the balance may depend on which side manages possession and attacking transitions more effectively.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring rather than strongly defensive or particularly open. There is also no clear indication that both teams will score, making that aspect difficult to separate in advance. The away-side signal suggests some support for Neftchi Baku PFC avoiding defeat, but it does not remove the possibility of a home win or a draw. Overall, this points to a competitive fixture with limited margin between the teams and several realistic match scenarios.
What matters before kick-off
First Leg Result
In the first leg of the second qualifying round, FC Dinamo Minsk came back from 2-0 down to defeat PFC Neftchi 4-2 in Baku.
Neutral Venue
The return leg is played at a neutral venue, Stadion Beroe in Stara Zagora, Bulgaria, due to UEFA restrictions on Belarusian clubs hosting home matches.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.