HB Torshavn — Motherwell FC: Win probabilities, 30.07.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 36.7% |
| 12 | 79.6% | |
| X2 | 83.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 47.2% / 52.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.1% / 5.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.0% / 25.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 51.3% / 48.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 29.2% / 70.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.1% / 85.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.9% / 94.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
HB Torshavn host Motherwell FC in a UEFA Conference League qualification tie that appears to favour the visitors. The assessment gives Motherwell FC a clear, though not overwhelming, advantage, with moderate confidence. That suggests the Scottish side should approach the match as the stronger team, while HB Torshavn may need to remain compact and make the most of their opportunities.
The expected scoring pattern is medium-scoring, with 0-1, 0-2 and 1-2 identified as the most likely scorelines. This points towards a match in which Motherwell FC could control more of the important phases without necessarily turning the contest into a one-sided performance. Whether both teams score is considered finely balanced, so HB Torshavn retain a realistic route to contributing on the scoresheet. Overall, the signal leans towards an away win, but the moderate confidence indicates that the hosts should not be discounted entirely.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.