Villarreal CF — SSC Napoli: Win probabilities, 13.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
44.7%
Home win
Villarreal CF
X
26.0%
Draw
W2
29.4%
Away win
SSC Napoli
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1274.0%
Both teams to score
Yes64.2%
Totals 2.5
Over61.6%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 70.6% |
| 12 | 74.0% | |
| X2 | 55.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 64.2% / 35.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.4% / 5.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.1% / 15.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 61.6% / 38.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 39.3% / 60.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.6% / 78.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.3% / 89.7% |
Goal distribution model
Villarreal CF × SSC Napoli
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
5.6%
0:1
4.4%
0:2
4.1%
0:3
1.9%
0:4
0.7%
0:5
0.2%
1
1:0
5.9%
1:1
11.8%
1:2
7.3%
1:3
3.4%
1:4
1.2%
1:5
0.3%
2
2:0
6.5%
2:1
9.2%
2:2
6.5%
2:3
3.0%
2:4
1.1%
2:5
0.3%
3
3:0
3.8%
3:1
5.4%
3:2
3.8%
3:3
1.8%
3:4
0.6%
3:5
0.2%
4
4:0
1.7%
4:1
2.4%
4:2
1.7%
4:3
0.8%
4:4
0.3%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.6%
5:1
0.8%
5:2
0.6%
5:3
0.3%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:111.8%
2:19.2%
1:27.3%
2:06.5%
2:26.5%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 13.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home Levante 3:1
- 17.09.2026 away Malaga 3:1
- 14.09.2026 home Betis 1:2
- 05.09.2026 home La Coruna 2:3
- 28.08.2026 away Alaves 0:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Fiorentina 1:1
- 13.09.2026 home Bologna 1:0
- 05.09.2026 away Inter 2:3
- 30.08.2026 home Como 1:2
- 22.08.2026 away Genoa 2:0
Head-to-head · Last 5 meetings
Villarreal CF wins2
Draws1
SSC Napoli wins2
Goals per match2.40
Both teams scored2/5
Over 2.5 goals1/5
- 17.12.2022 Napoli 2:3 Villarreal
- 25.02.2016 Napoli 1:1 Villarreal
- 18.02.2016 Villarreal 1:0 Napoli
- 07.12.2011 Villarreal 0:2 Napoli
- 27.09.2011 Napoli 2:0 Villarreal
Sources: football-data.co.uk, API-Football. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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