RB Leipzig — PSV Eindhoven: Win probabilities, 13.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
60.3%
Home win
RB Leipzig
X
19.3%
Draw
W2
20.4%
Away win
PSV Eindhoven
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1280.7%
Both teams to score
Yes70.8%
Totals 2.5
Over75.6%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 79.6% |
| 12 | 80.7% | |
| X2 | 39.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 70.8% / 29.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.6% / 2.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 91.0% / 9.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 75.6% / 24.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 55.9% / 44.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 36.4% / 63.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 20.9% / 79.1% |
Goal distribution model
RB Leipzig × PSV Eindhoven
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
2.4%
0:1
2.3%
0:2
2.0%
0:3
1.0%
0:4
0.3%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
4.3%
1:1
7.4%
1:2
5.0%
1:3
2.4%
1:4
0.9%
1:5
0.3%
2
2:0
6.0%
2:1
8.7%
2:2
6.3%
2:3
3.0%
2:4
1.1%
2:5
0.3%
3
3:0
5.0%
3:1
7.3%
3:2
5.3%
3:3
2.5%
3:4
0.9%
3:5
0.3%
4
4:0
3.2%
4:1
4.6%
4:2
3.3%
4:3
1.6%
4:4
0.6%
4:5
0.2%
5
5:0
1.6%
5:1
2.3%
5:2
1.7%
5:3
0.8%
5:4
0.3%
5:5
0.1%
Most likely scores
2:18.7%
1:17.4%
3:17.3%
2:26.3%
2:06.0%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 13.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Leverkusen 0:2
- 13.09.2026 home Hamburg 5:0
- 05.09.2026 away Werder Bremen 1:3
- 29.08.2026 home M'gladbach 3:0
- 16.05.2026 away Freiburg 1:4
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Twente 2:3
- 13.09.2026 home Sparta Rotterdam 4:1
- 05.09.2026 away Ajax 3:1
- 30.08.2026 away Utrecht 6:1
- 23.08.2026 home Groningen 5:1
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 1.73 → now 1.62 |
| X | was 4.33 → now 4.75 |
| W2 | was 4.00 → now 4.50 |
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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.