Arsenal FC — Lille OSC: Win probabilities, 13.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
80.8%
Home win
Arsenal FC
X
12.6%
Draw
W2
6.5%
Away win
Lille OSC
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X93.5%
Both teams to score
No57.0%
Totals 2.5
Over63.9%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 93.5% |
| 12 | 87.4% | |
| X2 | 19.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 43.0% / 57.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.5% / 3.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.8% / 16.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 63.9% / 36.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 41.8% / 58.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.6% / 76.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.6% / 88.4% |
Goal distribution model
Arsenal FC × Lille OSC
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
3.5%
0:1
2.5%
0:2
0.7%
0:3
0.2%
0:4
0.0%
0:5
0.0%
1
1:0
10.1%
1:1
6.0%
1:2
1.9%
1:3
0.4%
1:4
0.1%
1:5
0.0%
2
2:0
13.2%
2:1
8.3%
2:2
2.6%
2:3
0.5%
2:4
0.1%
2:5
0.0%
3
3:0
11.8%
3:1
7.3%
3:2
2.3%
3:3
0.5%
3:4
0.1%
3:5
0.0%
4
4:0
7.8%
4:1
4.9%
4:2
1.5%
4:3
0.3%
4:4
0.0%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
4.2%
5:1
2.6%
5:2
0.8%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
2:013.2%
3:011.8%
1:010.1%
2:18.3%
4:07.8%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 13.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 away Brighton 0:3
- 12.09.2026 away Sunderland 2:0
- 06.09.2026 home Chelsea 2:1
- 31.08.2026 away Aston Villa 1:0
- 21.08.2026 home Coventry 3:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Nice 1:2
- 13.09.2026 home Troyes 2:0
- 03.09.2026 away Toulouse 1:0
- 28.08.2026 home Paris SG 2:2
- 23.08.2026 away Angers 2:0
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| X | was 6.25 → now 7.00 |
| W2 | was 12.00 → now 13.00 |
Check current terms · 1WIN18+
Bonus up to $500
Sports betting, live markets and mobile app. Available only to users of legal gambling age in eligible regions.
Check available odds ↗
Other matches
Tools
Check the numbers before deciding
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.