Atletico Madrid — Manchester United: Win probabilities, 13.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
50.5%
Home win
Atletico Madrid
X
24.7%
Draw
W2
24.7%
Away win
Manchester United
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X75.3%
Both teams to score
Yes65.4%
Totals 2.5
Over64.7%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 75.3% |
| 12 | 75.3% | |
| X2 | 49.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 65.4% / 34.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.0% / 5.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.0% / 14.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.7% / 35.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.7% / 57.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.4% / 75.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.1% / 87.9% |
Goal distribution model
Atletico Madrid × Manchester United
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
5.0%
0:1
3.4%
0:2
3.3%
0:3
1.5%
0:4
0.5%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
5.6%
1:1
11.0%
1:2
6.5%
1:3
2.9%
1:4
1.0%
1:5
0.3%
2
2:0
7.0%
2:1
9.5%
2:2
6.4%
2:3
2.9%
2:4
1.0%
2:5
0.3%
3
3:0
4.6%
3:1
6.2%
3:2
4.2%
3:3
1.9%
3:4
0.6%
3:5
0.2%
4
4:0
2.3%
4:1
3.1%
4:2
2.1%
4:3
0.9%
4:4
0.3%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.9%
5:1
1.2%
5:2
0.8%
5:3
0.4%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:111.0%
2:19.5%
2:07.0%
1:26.5%
2:26.4%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 13.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 home Real Madrid 2:1
- 16.09.2026 home Osasuna 4:0
- 13.09.2026 away Sociedad 3:0
- 05.09.2026 away Ath Bilbao 0:3
- 29.08.2026 away Sevilla 3:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Fulham 1:1
- 13.09.2026 home Man City 0:1
- 06.09.2026 away Everton 2:2
- 30.08.2026 home Ipswich 5:2
- 22.08.2026 away Hull 0:2
Head-to-head · Last 5 meetings
Atletico Madrid wins3
Draws1
Manchester United wins1
Goals per match1.60
Both teams scored2/5
Over 2.5 goals1/5
- 01.08.2026 Manchester United 2:1 Atletico Madrid
- 30.07.2022 Atletico Madrid 1:0 Manchester United
- 30.07.2022 Atletico Madrid 1:0 Manchester United
- 15.03.2022 Manchester United 0:1 Atletico Madrid
- 23.02.2022 Atletico Madrid 1:1 Manchester United
Sources: football-data.co.uk, API-Football. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.