Villarreal CF — RC Deportivo de La Coruna: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 86.3% |
| 12 | 79.0% | |
| X2 | 34.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.5% / 47.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.3% / 5.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.2% / 18.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 58.1% / 41.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 35.7% / 64.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.8% / 81.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.6% / 91.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.09.2026
Villarreal CF
16th place · 2 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 28.08.2026 away Alaves 0:1
- 23.08.2026 away Ath Madrid 2:2
- 16.08.2026 away Santander 2:2
- 24.05.2026 home Ath Madrid 5:1
- 17.05.2026 away Vallecano 0:2
RC Deportivo de La Coruna
8th place · 5 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 home Valencia 3:1
- 24.08.2026 away Malaga 1:1
- 17.08.2026 home Elche 1:1
- 31.05.2026 home Las Palmas 1:2
- 24.05.2026 away Valladolid 2:0
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Villarreal CF go into this LaLiga meeting as the clearly stronger side, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the match should be approached with some caution. RC Deportivo de La Coruna remain competitive in the overall assessment, but the balance of the available signals favours the hosts, particularly in a fixture expected to produce a medium-scoring contest.
The central question is whether Villarreal CF can turn their advantage into control of the match without allowing RC Deportivo de La Coruna enough opportunities to stay involved. The assessment of both teams scoring is finely balanced, so the game could develop either through a clean, controlled home performance or through a more open exchange. Overall, Villarreal CF have the stronger outlook, but the profile does not point to an entirely one-sided evening. Kickoff is scheduled for 5 September 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
What matters before kick-off
Villarreal's winless start to the season
Villarreal enter Round 4 of LaLiga seeking their first victory of the 2026/27 season after recording two draws and a 1-0 defeat against Deportivo Alavés in their previous match.
Deportivo de La Coruña's strong start
Deportivo de La Coruña remain unbeaten in their opening three LaLiga fixtures of the season following a 3-1 home win over Valencia CF.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.