Villarreal CF — RC Deportivo de La Coruna: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 86.3% |
| 12 | 79.0% | |
| X2 | 34.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.5% / 47.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.3% / 5.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.2% / 18.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 58.1% / 41.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 35.7% / 64.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.8% / 81.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.6% / 91.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Villarreal CF go into this LaLiga meeting as the clearly stronger side, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the match should be approached with some caution. RC Deportivo de La Coruna remain competitive in the overall assessment, but the balance of the available signals favours the hosts, particularly in a fixture expected to produce a medium-scoring contest.
The central question is whether Villarreal CF can turn their advantage into control of the match without allowing RC Deportivo de La Coruna enough opportunities to stay involved. The assessment of both teams scoring is finely balanced, so the game could develop either through a clean, controlled home performance or through a more open exchange. Overall, Villarreal CF have the stronger outlook, but the profile does not point to an entirely one-sided evening. Kickoff is scheduled for 5 September 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
What matters before kick-off
Villarreal's winless start to the season
Villarreal enter Round 4 of LaLiga seeking their first victory of the 2026/27 season after recording two draws and a 1-0 defeat against Deportivo Alavés in their previous match.
Deportivo de La Coruña's strong start
Deportivo de La Coruña remain unbeaten in their opening three LaLiga fixtures of the season following a 3-1 home win over Valencia CF.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.