Deportivo Alaves — CA Osasuna: Win probabilities, 06.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 72.3% |
| 12 | 69.5% | |
| X2 | 58.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 48.7% / 51.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 89.0% / 11.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 69.6% / 30.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 41.8% / 58.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 21.2% / 78.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 9.0% / 91.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.3% / 96.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 06.09.2026
Deportivo Alaves
6th place · 7 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 28.08.2026 home Villarreal 1:0
- 20.08.2026 away Vallecano 1:1
- 15.08.2026 home Getafe 3:0
- 23.05.2026 home Vallecano 1:2
- 17.05.2026 away Oviedo 1:0
CA Osasuna
5th place · 8 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 31.08.2026 home Getafe 1:0
- 27.08.2026 away Celta 2:1
- 24.08.2026 home Levante 0:0
- 16.08.2026 away Celta 0:0
- 23.05.2026 away Getafe 0:1
This season: Deportivo Alaves at home vs CA Osasuna away
| Metric | Deportivo Alaves · at home | CA Osasuna · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 2–0–0 | 1–1–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| xG for per match | 1.37 | 2.68 |
| xG against per match | 0.82 | 0.13 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| Corners per match | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 05.04.2026 Deportivo Alaves 2:2 CA Osasuna
- 20.12.2025 CA Osasuna 3:0 Deportivo Alaves
- 24.05.2025 Deportivo Alaves 1:1 CA Osasuna
- 08.12.2024 CA Osasuna 2:2 Deportivo Alaves
- 04.03.2024 CA Osasuna 1:0 Deportivo Alaves
- 01.10.2023 Deportivo Alaves 0:2 CA Osasuna
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Deportivo Alaves hold a slight edge over CA Osasuna in this LaLiga meeting, with the available assessment giving the hosts a high-confidence advantage. That does not point to a one-sided contest, however, as the projected scoring level is medium and the overall range of likely outcomes remains fairly balanced. Home protection appears to be the main supporting signal, with the 1X market indication favouring Deportivo Alaves to avoid defeat.
The scoring outlook is less decisive. Both teams scoring is described as a coin flip, so the match could develop into a goal for each side or remain more controlled. The most likely scorelines are 1:1, 1:0 and 0:0, highlighting the narrow margin between a home win and a draw. CA Osasuna therefore remain competitive in the assessment, while Deportivo Alaves enter with the clearer claim to the result.
What matters before kick-off
Unbeaten start for both teams
Heading into matchday 4 of LaLiga, both Deportivo Alaves and CA Osasuna remain unbeaten with 7 points from their opening three games (2 wins, 1 draw).
Head-to-head streak
CA Osasuna enter the match on a 13-game unbeaten run in LaLiga meetings against Deportivo Alaves, recording 9 wins and 4 draws.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.