Deportivo Alaves — CA Osasuna: Win probabilities, 06.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 72.3% |
| 12 | 69.5% | |
| X2 | 58.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 48.7% / 51.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 89.0% / 11.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 69.6% / 30.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 41.8% / 58.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 21.2% / 78.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 9.0% / 91.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.3% / 96.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Deportivo Alaves hold a slight edge over CA Osasuna in this LaLiga meeting, with the available assessment giving the hosts a high-confidence advantage. That does not point to a one-sided contest, however, as the projected scoring level is medium and the overall range of likely outcomes remains fairly balanced. Home protection appears to be the main supporting signal, with the 1X market indication favouring Deportivo Alaves to avoid defeat.
The scoring outlook is less decisive. Both teams scoring is described as a coin flip, so the match could develop into a goal for each side or remain more controlled. The most likely scorelines are 1:1, 1:0 and 0:0, highlighting the narrow margin between a home win and a draw. CA Osasuna therefore remain competitive in the assessment, while Deportivo Alaves enter with the clearer claim to the result.
What matters before kick-off
Unbeaten start for both teams
Heading into matchday 4 of LaLiga, both Deportivo Alaves and CA Osasuna remain unbeaten with 7 points from their opening three games (2 wins, 1 draw).
Head-to-head streak
CA Osasuna enter the match on a 13-game unbeaten run in LaLiga meetings against Deportivo Alaves, recording 9 wins and 4 draws.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.