Villarreal CF — RC Deportivo de A Coruna: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 86.4% |
| 12 | 81.0% | |
| X2 | 32.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.0% / 45.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.7% / 4.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.5% / 16.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 62.5% / 37.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 40.2% / 59.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 22.3% / 77.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.8% / 89.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Villarreal CF go into this LaLiga meeting with a clear but not overwhelming edge over RC Deportivo de A Coruna. The available assessment points toward the hosts being the stronger side, although the moderate confidence level suggests that this advantage should be treated with some caution rather than as a decisive forecast.
The match is expected to have an open, high-scoring character. Villarreal CF are the more likely side to control the overall outcome, but RC Deportivo de A Coruna remain capable of contributing to the scoreline. The outlook on both teams scoring is finely balanced, so the game could develop in different ways depending on how effectively the visitors respond to the hosts’ advantage. Overall, the clearest signal is in favour of Villarreal CF, with a competitive contest still possible.
What matters before kick-off
Recent LaLiga form
Villarreal under Iñigo Pérez started the 2026/27 LaLiga season winless in their opening three matches, most recently suffering a 1-0 defeat to Deportivo Alavés. Newly-promoted Deportivo La Coruña remain unbeaten, having secured a 3-1 win against Valencia in their previous fixture.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.